CAJ | 학술논문

为了准确诊断油纸绝缘的老化状态，对多组试样进行加速老化实验，并测量多个非破坏性参量。通过显著性检验，筛选出与绝缘纸聚合度最相关的参量，进而建立绝缘纸聚合度的多元线性回归预测模型，并分析聚合度与变压器失效概率之间的关系。结果表明：参量中糠醛含量的对数、一氧化碳、二氧化碳、水分、氢气与绝缘纸的聚合度相关性较大，利用上述参量建立了预测聚合度的多元线性回归模型，拟合优度为0.93。当聚合度大于400时，变压器的失效概率几乎为零，而当聚合度小于400时，变压器的失效概率随聚合度的降低而不断增加。
위료준학진단유지절연적노화상태，대다조시양진행가속노화실험，병측량다개비파배성삼량。통과현저성검험，사선출여절연지취합도최상관적삼량，진이건립절연지취합도적다원선성회귀예측모형，병분석취합도여변압기실효개솔지간적관계。결과표명：삼량중강철함량적대수、일양화탄、이양화탄、수분、경기여절연지적취합도상관성교대，이용상술삼량건립료예측취합도적다원선성회귀모형，의합우도위0.93。당취합도대우400시，변압기적실효개솔궤호위령，이당취합도소우400시，변압기적실효개솔수취합도적강저이불단증가。
In order to evaluate the ageing status of oil-paper insulation accurately, we conducted accelerat-ed ageing experiments on the multi-group samples and measured their several non-destructive parameters. The most relevant parameters to degree of polymerization(DP) of insulation paper were selected through significance test, and a multiple linear regression forecast model was built to analyze the relationship be-tween DP and failure probability of transformer. The results show that the logarithmic of furfural content, CO, CO2, H2O, and H2 are more correlative with DP. The multiple linear regression model based on the above parameters was built, and the goodness of fit is 0.93. When the DP is above 400, the failure probability of transformer is nearly zero. When the DP is below 400, the failure probability increases with the decrease of DP.