CAJ | 학술논문

危机后世界经济恢复缓慢，外部需求持续低迷，中国商品出口贸易发展增速逐年放缓，为了深入探讨危机后中国商品出口贸易的发展，文章在分析主要贸易伙伴国（地区）经济发展的周期波动与中国商品出口贸易发展之间关系的基础上，建立了包含经济发展周期波动因素的面板数据模型，定量地研究了主要贸易伙伴国（地区）经济发展对中国商品出口贸易发展的影响效应。研究结果表明：主要贸易伙伴国（地区）的经济发展对中国商品出口贸易发展具有重要的影响，但在经济发展的不同周期阶段，其影响效应具有非对称性，经济发展处于繁荣阶段的拉动效应大于衰退阶段。最后分别从积极参与国际经济事务、促进产业结构转型升级等三个方面，对后危机时期中国商品出口贸易的发展提出了相应的建议。
위궤후세계경제회복완만，외부수구지속저미，중국상품출구무역발전증속축년방완，위료심입탐토위궤후중국상품출구무역적발전，문장재분석주요무역화반국（지구）경제발전적주기파동여중국상품출구무역발전지간관계적기출상，건립료포함경제발전주기파동인소적면판수거모형，정량지연구료주요무역화반국（지구）경제발전대중국상품출구무역발전적영향효응。연구결과표명：주요무역화반국（지구）적경제발전대중국상품출구무역발전구유중요적영향，단재경제발전적불동주기계단，기영향효응구유비대칭성，경제발전처우번영계단적랍동효응대우쇠퇴계단。최후분별종적겁삼여국제경제사무、촉진산업결구전형승급등삼개방면，대후위궤시기중국상품출구무역적발전제출료상응적건의。
After the crisis, the recovery of world's economy was slow, the foreign demand substantially downturn and the develop-ment of China's goods export was slowdown year after year. In order to study the development of China's goods export in post-crisis period , the paper analyzed the relationship between the business cycle of the main trading partners and the development of China's goods export , then established a panel data model which include the factor of business cycle, empirical research the effect of the main trading partners (regional)'s economic development on the China's goods export. The results showed that the main trading partners (regional)'s economic development had important effect on the development of China's goods export. But in the different economic development state , its effect on the China's goods export was asymmetry, the stimulating effect of boom state was greater than decline one. Finally, the paper proposed two recommendations for the development of China's goods export in the post-crisis period:actively participated in international economic affairs and promoted industrial restructuring and upgrading.