CAJ | 학술논문

目的：研究三级综合性医院门诊量变化规律,预测其变化趋势,为医院管理决策提供依据。方法结合序列平稳性、长期趋势和季节效应,利用SPSS 17.0统计软件建立门诊量预测模型ARIMA。结果经筛选得最优模型ARI-MA(1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12,对残差序列作自相关图,结果显示所选模型恰当。预测2013年门诊量为226.74万人次,实际门诊量为230.99万人次,相对误差为4.4%。结论三级综合医院门诊量存在着季节变化和逐渐增长趋势,适合用ARI-MA模型进行拟合,模型预测效果较好,可为医院领导层决策及门诊运行管理提供依据,从而有效指导工作计划与安排,该模型在门诊管理中的应用具有实效性及推广性。
목적：연구삼급종합성의원문진량변화규률,예측기변화추세,위의원관리결책제공의거。방법결합서렬평은성、장기추세화계절효응,이용SPSS 17.0통계연건건립문진량예측모형ARIMA。결과경사선득최우모형ARI-MA(1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12,대잔차서렬작자상관도,결과현시소선모형흡당。예측2013년문진량위226.74만인차,실제문진량위230.99만인차,상대오차위4.4%。결론삼급종합의원문진량존재착계절변화화축점증장추세,괄합용ARI-MA모형진행의합,모형예측효과교호,가위의원령도층결책급문진운행관리제공의거,종이유효지도공작계화여안배,해모형재문진관리중적응용구유실효성급추엄성。
Objective To study change rules of outpatient visits, to forecast the change tendency,and thus to provide a basis for hospital outpatient management decisions. Methods Combined with sequence stability with long-term trend and sea-sonal effect, by using SPSS 17. 0 to establish ARIMA model. Results After the screening we got the optimal model of ARIMA (1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12, and made autocorrelation diagram of the residual series. The Results showed that the selected model was proper. The predicted number of outpatient visits in 2013 was 2. 2674 million, while the actual number was 2. 3099 million, with the relative error 4. 4%. Conclusion There was a seasonal change and a growing trend for the number of outpatient visits, suit-able for using ARIMA model, and the model prediction effect was good. It could provide basis for operation management and de-cision-making for the hospital leadership, and effectively guide the work plan and arrangement. The model application has effec-tiveness and generalizability in the outpatient management.