CAJ | 학술논문

为了提高变形预测的精度，获得可靠有效的预报模型，通过对回归模型残差项的进一步分析，利用Eview s对残差序列建立了时间序列模型，从而得到了回归和时间序列组合模型。利用该模型对一组实测数据进行分析、预测，并将变形数据和实测数据进行比较，证明了组合模型具有更好的预测精度和可靠性。
위료제고변형예측적정도，획득가고유효적예보모형，통과대회귀모형잔차항적진일보분석，이용Eview s대잔차서렬건립료시간서렬모형，종이득도료회귀화시간서렬조합모형。이용해모형대일조실측수거진행분석、예측，병장변형수거화실측수거진행비교，증명료조합모형구유경호적예측정도화가고성。
In order to improve the accuracy of predicting the deformation ,and abtain reliable and effective forecasting models ,We further analyzed the residuals of the regression model ,and built a time series model ,a combination of the regression and time series models with the rasidual se‐ries sing eviews .Using this model ,a set of measured data was analyzed and forecasted ,and the deformation data and measured data are compared .The results showed that the combination mod‐el had better prediction accuracy and reliability .