CAJ | 학술논문

为了提高热带气旋的短期气候预测水平，选取1851－1870年北大西洋热带气旋样本，按照热带气旋在不同海域的路径差异分成5个区域，利用基于偏最小二乘回归的气候持续法，建立预报未来气旋中心位置的模型，对1871－2010年每个区域的气旋进行路径预报。根据预报结果与实际数据的误差分析每个区域的预报难度，利用小波分析法找出预报难度变化的周期性规律。结果表明，北大西洋海域热带气旋路径预报的难度呈现从南向北以及从东向西递增规律，靠近大陆区域的部分热带气旋路径发生转折，这些区域的预报难度有所增大。中高纬度区域是气旋路径有旺盛期向衰亡期转折的区域，影响气旋路径的因素较多，该区域气旋路径预报的难度更大。
위료제고열대기선적단기기후예측수평，선취1851－1870년북대서양열대기선양본，안조열대기선재불동해역적로경차이분성5개구역，이용기우편최소이승회귀적기후지속법，건립예보미래기선중심위치적모형，대1871－2010년매개구역적기선진행로경예보。근거예보결과여실제수거적오차분석매개구역적예보난도，이용소파분석법조출예보난도변화적주기성규률。결과표명，북대서양해역열대기선로경예보적난도정현종남향북이급종동향서체증규률，고근대륙구역적부분열대기선로경발생전절，저사구역적예보난도유소증대。중고위도구역시기선로경유왕성기향쇠망기전절적구역，영향기선로경적인소교다，해구역기선로경예보적난도경대。
To improve the accuracy of short-term forecasting of tropical cyclones,the 185 1—1870 annual samples of the Norh atlantical hurricane were selected.Firstly,The North Atlantic was divided into five regions in accordance with the path difference.Then,the forecasting model of future clones was estibished with the method of climate continuous based on the least squares.Finally,by the analysis of the error be-tween the actual data and the forecast results,the difficulty of forecasting of each region and its periodic regular pattern were achieved by using wavelet analysis method.The results show that the difficulty of forecasting the path of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic waters increases from south to north by lati-tude and from east to west by longitude,while the path of tropical cyclones near the mainland part of the region is a turning point where the forecast is more difficult.The area of high-latitude is a transition region where the cyclone path experiences from a strong period to a decline phase.Factors affecting the cyclone path in this region make it more difficult to forecast the cyclones.