CAJ | 학술논문

为研究无线电掩星探测(GPS RO)弯角和折射率同化对数值预报的影响，以2012年17号台风“杰拉华”为例，利用美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)的业务同化系统(GSI)，以 NCEP 预报场资料为初始场，分别使用一维弯角观测算子和一维折射率观测算子同化弯角和折射率数据，并与观测数据对比，分析比较了同化掩星弯角和折射率资料对台风路径、强度及大气状态变量的影响。结果表明，在完成掩星弯角和折射率资料同化后，台风路径的预报水平得到明显改进，其中同化弯角资料可以使路径误差减少32％，而同化折射率资料只能减少13％，同化2种掩星资料对台风强度预报也有一定的影响，其中同化弯角资料后在前2天预报的台风中心气压更接近于实际情况，而同化折射率资料对预报有负影响。
위연구무선전엄성탐측(GPS RO)만각화절사솔동화대수치예보적영향，이2012년17호태풍“걸랍화”위례，이용미국국가배경예보중심(NCEP)적업무동화계통(GSI)，이 NCEP 예보장자료위초시장，분별사용일유만각관측산자화일유절사솔관측산자동화만각화절사솔수거，병여관측수거대비，분석비교료동화엄성만각화절사솔자료대태풍로경、강도급대기상태변량적영향。결과표명，재완성엄성만각화절사솔자료동화후，태풍로경적예보수평득도명현개진，기중동화만각자료가이사로경오차감소32％，이동화절사솔자료지능감소13％，동화2충엄성자료대태풍강도예보야유일정적영향，기중동화만각자료후재전2천예보적태풍중심기압경접근우실제정황，이동화절사솔자료대예보유부영향。
The assimilation with GPS RO (global positioning system radio occultation)refractivity and ben-ding angle data was experimented by using NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction,US) GSI (grid point Statistical Interpolation)operational data assimilation system .For the Typhoon Jelawat, No.17 in 2012,its intensity and path were compared through different method.The results show that ty-phoon path and typhoon intensity prediction are changed by assimilating refractivity and bending angle da-ta.Error of path prediction is reduced by 32% using bending angle data and 13% using refractivity data. The positive impact is achieved when bending angle data is assimilated in the first and second days and neg-ative influences occur using refractivity data.