CAJ | 학술논문

当前国际环境的不确定性使得国际工程承包企业正面临巨大的政治风险，对国际工程政治风险的科学评估显得尤为重要。文章基于政治风险的实际情况，从国际工程自身特点和政治风险评估相关理论分析入手，应用层次分析法建立了国际工程政治风险评价指标体系，选用模糊评价法建立政治风险评估模型，以 AHP 法和熵值法分别确定指标的主客观权重，并引入距离函数确定指标组合权重，实现了基于模糊熵权的国际工程政治风险评价。并将建立的风险评估模型运用到苏丹 SA 水利枢纽工程的政治风险评估实证分析中，获得了国际工程政治风险对应等级并提出应对对策。
당전국제배경적불학정성사득국제공정승포기업정면림거대적정치풍험，대국제공정정치풍험적과학평고현득우위중요。문장기우정치풍험적실제정황，종국제공정자신특점화정치풍험평고상관이론분석입수，응용층차분석법건립료국제공정정치풍험평개지표체계，선용모호평개법건립정치풍험평고모형，이 AHP 법화적치법분별학정지표적주객관권중，병인입거리함수학정지표조합권중，실현료기우모호적권적국제공정정치풍험평개。병장건립적풍험평고모형운용도소단 SA 수리추뉴공정적정치풍험평고실증분석중，획득료국제공정정치풍험대응등급병제출응대대책。
International project contracting enterprises now face a huge political risk due to the uncertainty of the current international environment, scientific evaluation of political risk for international project is particularly important.Based on the actual situation of current international engineering project,after analyzing the feature of international engineering construction risk,we have designed the risk evaluation index system using the method of analytic hierarchy process.Then,we use fuzzy evaluation method to establish evaluation model,and use AHP method and entropy value method to determine the subjective and objective weights separately,and then use the distance function to achieve the integration of subjective and objective weights and evaluate the comprehensive political risk.Finally,through the example of Sudan SA water conservancy hub project analysis,we get rank of the international engineering political risk and put forward some advices.The research is of certain reference value for international engineering contractor to take different strategies for risk prevention based on the level of risk.