柴油机设计与制造
柴油機設計與製造
시유궤설계여제조
DESIGN & MANUFACTURE OF DIESEL ENGINE
2015年
2期
48-53
,共6页
发动机%订单%波动%销售%预测
髮動機%訂單%波動%銷售%預測
발동궤%정단%파동%소수%예측
engine%market demand%fluctuation sale%prediction
在当今日益变化的发动机市场环境下，竞争日趋激烈，订单常常发生波动。如何在订单波动下预测发动机的销售量，以合理安排生产，是企业管理面临的一个挑战。但预测方法会影响预测的准确性，对3种预测方法及其预测误差进行了比较和分析。以某发动机制造厂为例，说明如何根据订单波动情况，预测发动机的销售量。
在噹今日益變化的髮動機市場環境下，競爭日趨激烈，訂單常常髮生波動。如何在訂單波動下預測髮動機的銷售量，以閤理安排生產，是企業管理麵臨的一箇挑戰。但預測方法會影響預測的準確性，對3種預測方法及其預測誤差進行瞭比較和分析。以某髮動機製造廠為例，說明如何根據訂單波動情況，預測髮動機的銷售量。
재당금일익변화적발동궤시장배경하，경쟁일추격렬，정단상상발생파동。여하재정단파동하예측발동궤적소수량，이합리안배생산，시기업관리면림적일개도전。단예측방법회영향예측적준학성，대3충예측방법급기예측오차진행료비교화분석。이모발동궤제조엄위례，설명여하근거정단파동정황，예측발동궤적소수량。
In today's ever-changing market, market competition is becoming fierce, which leads to market demand fluctuation. To predict engines sales under fluctuated market demand for a good arrangement of engine production is a challenge facing engine manufacturers. With the help of data mining theory and by analysis of historic data, the prediction engine sales can be obtained. Forecasting methods and their selection, however, have much effect on the result of prediction. Comparison and analysis of different predicting methods and their errors are discussed. The application of forecasting methods to foreseeing sales is explained based on the data of an engine manufacturer.
