广东电力
廣東電力
엄동전력
GUANGDONG ELECTRIC POWER
2015年
6期
6-11
,共6页
“新常态”经济%中长期电量预测%弹性系数法%人均用电量%经济发展预测
“新常態”經濟%中長期電量預測%彈性繫數法%人均用電量%經濟髮展預測
“신상태”경제%중장기전량예측%탄성계수법%인균용전량%경제발전예측
the new normal economy%medium and long term electricity quantity forecasting%elastic coefficient method%per capita household electricity consumption%economic development forecasting
探讨了在经济逐步迈入“新常态”的情况下，广东省未来15年的电力需求情况。首先在分析广东经济发展特点及影响因素的基础上，对广东经济发展进行预测。其次，分析广东历史用电情况，考虑影响电量增长的因素，对电量增速区间进行预估；同时结合经济增长、产业结构调整、城镇化率、人口增长、技术进步和产业政策等方面对广东电力需求发展的影响，利用产值单耗法、弹性系数法和人均用电量法对广东全社会用电量进行了预测。最后，对广东最大负荷利用小时数进行分析，在电量预测结果的基础上预测了广东未来最大用电负荷。
探討瞭在經濟逐步邁入“新常態”的情況下，廣東省未來15年的電力需求情況。首先在分析廣東經濟髮展特點及影響因素的基礎上，對廣東經濟髮展進行預測。其次，分析廣東歷史用電情況，攷慮影響電量增長的因素，對電量增速區間進行預估；同時結閤經濟增長、產業結構調整、城鎮化率、人口增長、技術進步和產業政策等方麵對廣東電力需求髮展的影響，利用產值單耗法、彈性繫數法和人均用電量法對廣東全社會用電量進行瞭預測。最後，對廣東最大負荷利用小時數進行分析，在電量預測結果的基礎上預測瞭廣東未來最大用電負荷。
탐토료재경제축보매입“신상태”적정황하，광동성미래15년적전력수구정황。수선재분석엄동경제발전특점급영향인소적기출상，대엄동경제발전진행예측。기차，분석엄동역사용전정황，고필영향전량증장적인소，대전량증속구간진행예고；동시결합경제증장、산업결구조정、성진화솔、인구증장、기술진보화산업정책등방면대엄동전력수구발전적영향，이용산치단모법、탄성계수법화인균용전량법대엄동전사회용전량진행료예측。최후，대엄동최대부하이용소시수진행분석，재전량예측결과적기출상예측료엄동미래최대용전부하。
This paper discusses electric power demand in future 1 5 years in Guangdong province under the condition of econo-my entering into the New Normal step by step. Firstly,it forecasts economic development of Guangdong province on the ba-sis of analyzing economic development characteristic and influencing factors. Secondly,the paper analyzes historical elec-tricity consumption in Guangdong province,considers factors affecting increase of electric quantity and forecasts speed in-crease interval of electric quantity. Meanwhile,combining affect on electric power demand development by economic in-crease,industrial restructuring,urbanization rate,population increase,technical progress and industrial policy,unit con-sumption method of output value,elastic coefficient method and per capita household electricity consumption method was used for forecasting electricity consumption of the whole social of Guangdong province. Maximum load utilization hours of Guangdong province were analyzed and maximum electrical load in the future in Guangdong province was forecasted based on result of electric quantity forecasting.
