CAJ | 학술논문

伴随着 El Ni觡o 和 La Ni觡a 事件的发生发展，我国东部地区季节降水异常的特征也发生变化。本文通过统计1951-2010年我国东部地区120个站点的月平均降水量资料，利用合成分析的方法，研究中国东部季节降水与 El Ni觡o 和 La Ni觡a 事件的关联。结果显示，El Ni觡o 当年冬季和次年春夏季我国东部大部分地区以多雨为主，La Ni觡a 年则相反；长江中下游地区降水显著异常偏多发生在 El Ni觡o 次年春季，且此时长江流域以及河套地区降水量均显著增加，但 La Ni觡a 次年春季该地区雨量无明显变化；El Ni觡o 次年春季和 La Ni觡a 次年夏季西南地区易发生干旱。结果表明 El Ni觡o 和 La Ni觡a 对中国东部季节降水的影响存在非对称性，对于部分地区具有一定的预测意义。
반수착 El Ni격o 화 La Ni격a 사건적발생발전，아국동부지구계절강수이상적특정야발생변화。본문통과통계1951-2010년아국동부지구120개참점적월평균강수량자료，이용합성분석적방법，연구중국동부계절강수여 El Ni격o 화 La Ni격a 사건적관련。결과현시，El Ni격o 당년동계화차년춘하계아국동부대부분지구이다우위주，La Ni격a 년칙상반；장강중하유지구강수현저이상편다발생재 El Ni격o 차년춘계，차차시장강류역이급하투지구강수량균현저증가，단 La Ni격a 차년춘계해지구우량무명현변화；El Ni격o 차년춘계화 La Ni격a 차년하계서남지구역발생간한。결과표명 El Ni격o 화 La Ni격a 대중국동부계절강수적영향존재비대칭성，대우부분지구구유일정적예측의의。
With the development of El Ni?o and La Ni?a,the characteristics of precipitation anomalies over East China change. This paper counts monthly mean precipitation data from 1951 to 2010 in 120 sites of eastern China,taking the advantage of the method of composite analysis,and studies seasonal precipitation’s relationship with the events of El Ni?o and La Ni?a. The results showed that:in the winter of El Ni?o year,it is rainy in most parts over East China,as well as in spring and summer of the following year. The precipitation of spring in El Ni?o’s following year is significantly above normal in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,at the same time,the rainfall also increases in Yangtze River Basin and Loop area,yet the precipitation in the spring of the following year of La Ni?a does not change significantly in the same area. In addition,southwest region is likely to suffer from drought in the spring of the following year of El Ni?o and summer of La Ni?a’s following year. The results of this analysis can be used to explain the asymmetric effects of El Ni?o and La Ni?a on seasonal rainfall over East China,which have some predictive significance for some areas.