CAJ | 학술논문

采用小波-差分指数平滑方法对三峡库区八字门滑坡地表位移进行了预测。小波变换以其多分辨率分析的特性，广泛应用于信号分析，指数平滑方法是在移动平均法基础上发展起来的一种时间序列分析预测法，在预测分析中应用广泛。针对三峡库区八字门滑坡的GPS监测水平累积位移，采用小波变换对时间序列进行去噪预处理，并分别建立一阶差分和二阶差分指数平滑模型对其进行预测，预测得到的平均绝对误差百分比仅为1.5%和1.1%，取得了非常好的效果，该模型可以应用于实际工程。
채용소파-차분지수평활방법대삼협고구팔자문활파지표위이진행료예측。소파변환이기다분변솔분석적특성，엄범응용우신호분석，지수평활방법시재이동평균법기출상발전기래적일충시간서렬분석예측법，재예측분석중응용엄범。침대삼협고구팔자문활파적GPS감측수평루적위이，채용소파변환대시간서렬진행거조예처리，병분별건립일계차분화이계차분지수평활모형대기진행예측，예측득도적평균절대오차백분비부위1.5%화1.1%，취득료비상호적효과，해모형가이응용우실제공정。
The wavelet-difference index smoothing method was used to predict cumulative displacement of the Bazimen land-slide located in Three Gorges Reservoir area. Wavelet transform is widely used in signal analysis because of its multi resolution a-nalysis, while the index smoothing method is a kind of time series analysis method, which is developed based on the moving aver-age method and commonly applied in prediction analysis. Aiming at the accumulative displacement data of the landslide, the time series is denoised by the wavelet transform in pretreatment, and the first difference-index smoothing model and second difference-index smoothing model are established to predict the accumulative displacement of the landslide. The results show that the MAPEs (Mean Absolute Percent Error) are 1. 5% and 1. 1%, demonstrating that this model can be applied to practical engi-neering.