CAJ | 학술논문

由于资料缺乏和对临界雨量分析不足等问题，部分山洪防治地区山洪预警效果不佳。基于流域降雨径流关系，结合流域土壤含水量和前期实测降雨量，计算了河道洪峰流量达到安全泄量所需的下一时段降雨量(临界雨量)；并以最小二乘法准则拟合前期实测降雨与临界雨量之间的函数关系，建立了不同土壤含水量等级下的动态临界雨量计算函数。依据试验流域隽水1964~2014年共38场具有代表性的典型洪水过程资料，对所建立的动态临界雨量计算函数进行检验，并开展山洪预警试验，合格率达到94.7%。表明该方法用于山洪预警在技术上是可行的。
유우자료결핍화대림계우량분석불족등문제，부분산홍방치지구산홍예경효과불가。기우류역강우경류관계，결합류역토양함수량화전기실측강우량，계산료하도홍봉류량체도안전설량소수적하일시단강우량(림계우량)；병이최소이승법준칙의합전기실측강우여림계우량지간적함수관계，건립료불동토양함수량등급하적동태림계우량계산함수。의거시험류역준수1964~2014년공38장구유대표성적전형홍수과정자료，대소건립적동태림계우량계산함수진행검험，병개전산홍예경시험，합격솔체도94.7%。표명해방법용우산홍예경재기술상시가행적。
Due to the lack of data and insufficient analysis of the critical precipitation, the pre-warning effect of mountain tor-rents is poor. Based on the rainfall-runoff relation, by considering the soil moisture and observed antecedent rainfall, the later rainfall ( critical rainfall) resulting in the peak discharge just to reach the safe discharge is calculated, and then the calculation functions for dynamic critical precipitation under different soil moisture content level are established using the fitted function rela-tion between antecedent rainfall and critical rainfall by least square method. Using this method, combining with 38 typical flood process in the experimental basin from 1964 to 2014, the calculation function are applied to validate the feasibility. The pre-warning of mountain torrents simulation is carried out and the qualification rate is 94. 7%, which indicates that the Dynamic Criti-cal Rainfall Drafting Method is technically feasible for pre-warning of mountain torrents.