CAJ | 학술논문

电力系统负荷的准确预测，对电力系统安全、高效运行有重要作用。负荷存在混沌特性，而基于混沌理论的预测较好地刻画了负荷物理属性，预测精度高。并主要介绍了混沌理论在负荷预测中的应用。首先，概述了基于混沌理论预测的机理，介绍了几种混沌特性判别的方法。然后，介绍了几种预测模型。最后，对现有预测模型总结和展望。
전력계통부하적준학예측，대전력계통안전、고효운행유중요작용。부하존재혼돈특성，이기우혼돈이론적예측교호지각화료부하물리속성，예측정도고。병주요개소료혼돈이론재부하예측중적응용。수선，개술료기우혼돈이론예측적궤리，개소료궤충혼돈특성판별적방법。연후，개소료궤충예측모형。최후，대현유예측모형총결화전망。
The accurate prediction of power system load has an important effect on the power system safe and efficient operation. Load is chaotic;prediction based on chaos theory better characterizes the physical properties of the load,with high prediction accuracy. The article describes the application of chaos theory in load forecas-ting. First,an overview of the mechanism of prediction based on chaos theory,describes several methods of i-dentifying chaotic nature. Then,we introduce several forecasting models. Finally,we conclude the existing pre-diction model.