CAJ | 학술논문

利用多元回归对粮食价格的趋势及主要原因进行分析.结果表明,我国粮食价格主要受粮食保护价格、化肥价格和政府销售贸易粮数量三大因素的影响.其中粮食保护价格对粮食价格影响最为显著,成正相关,由此得出对粮食最低收购价格的制定非常重要.化肥价格正向影响粮食价格,控制好化肥价格的波动等于变相控制住粮食的价格,因此需要密切关注化肥价格.同时随着政府销售贸易粮数量的增多粮食价格会有所下降,当粮食价格剧烈上涨时,政府适当地销售库存粮食可以起到稳定粮价的作用.基于分析,对国家粮食价格的政策提出一些建议.
이용다원회귀대양식개격적추세급주요원인진행분석.결과표명,아국양식개격주요수양식보호개격、화비개격화정부소수무역량수량삼대인소적영향.기중양식보호개격대양식개격영향최위현저,성정상관,유차득출대양식최저수구개격적제정비상중요.화비개격정향영향양식개격,공제호화비개격적파동등우변상공제주양식적개격,인차수요밀절관주화비개격.동시수착정부소수무역량수량적증다양식개격회유소하강,당양식개격극렬상창시,정부괄당지소수고존양식가이기도은정량개적작용.기우분석,대국가양식개격적정책제출일사건의.
The variation trend of grain prices and its main reasons was analyzed by multiple regression,the results showed that China′s grain prices are affected by the price protection policies,fertilizer prices and the number of national sales trade grain.The effect of the price protection policies is the most significant and positive correlation to grain prices,so conclude that the formulation of the minimum grain purchase prices is very important.Fertilizer prices are the impact of grain price,to control good fertilizer price fluctuations tantamount is equal to control food prices,so need to pay close attention to the price of fertilizer.The grain prices decline as the number of national sales trade grain increase,especially when the sharp rise in food prices,the government can sale grain to stabilize prices. Gave some suggestion on thenational grainpricepolicy based on theresults of the analysis.