CAJ | 학술논문

我国面临着严重的细颗粒物（PM2.5）污染问题，PM2.5对人体健康、能见度、气候变化、生态系统等均产生了不良影响。本文旨在提出我国PM2.5污染防治目标和控制措施，为从根本上改善空气质量提供科学依据。首先，本文提出了2020年和2030年我国PM2.5污染防治目标。其次，采用能源和污染排放技术模型，分情景预测了我国未来一次大气污染物排放量的变化趋势。基于情景预测结果和此前研究建立的一次污染物排放与PM2.5浓度间的非线性关系，确定了2020年—2030年与PM2.5浓度改善相适应的全国和重点区域大气污染物减排目标。最后，利用能源和污染排放技术模型，提出了实现大气污染物减排的技术措施和对策建议。研究表明，2030年全国二氧化硫、氮氧化物、一次PM2.5和挥发性有机物的排放量应分别比2012年至少削减51%、64%、53%和36%，氨排放量也要略有下降。对于污染严重的重点区域，必须采取更严格的控制力度。要实现上述减排，应加快能源结构调整，推进煤炭清洁高效集中可持续利用，建立“车-油-路”一体的移动源控制体系，并强化多源多污染物的末端控制。
아국면림착엄중적세과립물（PM2.5）오염문제，PM2.5대인체건강、능견도、기후변화、생태계통등균산생료불량영향。본문지재제출아국PM2.5오염방치목표화공제조시，위종근본상개선공기질량제공과학의거。수선，본문제출료2020년화2030년아국PM2.5오염방치목표。기차，채용능원화오염배방기술모형，분정경예측료아국미래일차대기오염물배방량적변화추세。기우정경예측결과화차전연구건립적일차오염물배방여PM2.5농도간적비선성관계，학정료2020년—2030년여PM2.5농도개선상괄응적전국화중점구역대기오염물감배목표。최후，이용능원화오염배방기술모형，제출료실현대기오염물감배적기술조시화대책건의。연구표명，2030년전국이양화류、담양화물、일차PM2.5화휘발성유궤물적배방량응분별비2012년지소삭감51%、64%、53%화36%，안배방량야요략유하강。대우오염엄중적중점구역，필수채취경엄격적공제력도。요실현상술감배，응가쾌능원결구조정，추진매탄청길고효집중가지속이용，건립“차-유-로”일체적이동원공제체계，병강화다원다오염물적말단공제。
China is facing with severe fine particle (PM2.5) pollution, which has adverse effect on human health, visibility, climate change, and ecological system. This study aims to propose the target and measures to prevent and control ambient PM2.5pollution in China. Firstly, we proposed China’s PM2.5 pollution control targets for 2020 and 2030. Then, we projected the future emissions of primary air pollutants in China for six control scenarios with an energy utilization and pollution control technology model. Based on the projection results and the non-linear relationship between emissions of primary air pollutants and ambient PM2.5 concentrations established in previous studies, we determined the emission reductions required for the mitigation of ambient PM2.5 pollutionin 2020 and 2030 for both whole China and key regions. Finally, the technical measures and related policies were advanced using previousmodel. The results indicated that the national emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, primary PM2.5, and volatile organic compounds should be reduced by 51%, 64%, 53%, and 36%, respectively, by 2030 from the 2012 levels. The ammonia emissions should also be reduced slightly. More stringent emission controls should be enforced in heavy-pollution regions. To achieve such emission reductions, we should accelerate energy structure adjustment, promote the clean, efficient, centralized, and sustainable utilization of coal, establish the“vehicle-fuel-road”integrated control system for mobile sources, and tighten the end-of-pipe control measures for multiple sources and multiple pollutants.