CAJ | 학술논문

雾霾污染已成为京津冀地区最突出的环境问题，国务院颁布了《大气污染防治行动计划》，明确提出了京津冀地区雾霾治理的浓度目标和减排措施。但是这些减排措施能否够实现PM2.5的浓度目标呢？本文基于数据分析方法，量化了2013—2014年京津冀地区PM2.5浓度与污染物排放量的关系，预测了现有减排措施可以达到的PM2.5浓度以及实现既定的PM2.5浓度目标的大气污染物减排要求，对“大气十条”减排政策的有效性进行了科学评估。结果显示，现有的减排措施难以实现PM2.5浓度控制目标，天津和河北的大多数地市需要进一步加大污染物减排力度。河北的部分地市即使实现了PM2.5浓度下降25%的目标，PM2.5浓度仍然过高，应改下降百分比为绝对值目标。北京的污染物减排率过高，减排难度较大，可以考虑一个现实合理的PM2.5浓度目标和污染物减排计划。由于污染物减排行动涉及区域经济和民生保障，PM2.5浓度受到风力等自然因素的影响较大，京津冀地区的雾霾治理应确定现实可行的浓度控制目标，并制定相应的污染物排放量管理目标。
무매오염이성위경진기지구최돌출적배경문제，국무원반포료《대기오염방치행동계화》，명학제출료경진기지구무매치리적농도목표화감배조시。단시저사감배조시능부구실현PM2.5적농도목표니？본문기우수거분석방법，양화료2013—2014년경진기지구PM2.5농도여오염물배방량적관계，예측료현유감배조시가이체도적PM2.5농도이급실현기정적PM2.5농도목표적대기오염물감배요구，대“대기십조”감배정책적유효성진행료과학평고。결과현시，현유적감배조시난이실현PM2.5농도공제목표，천진화하북적대다수지시수요진일보가대오염물감배력도。하북적부분지시즉사실현료PM2.5농도하강25%적목표，PM2.5농도잉연과고，응개하강백분비위절대치목표。북경적오염물감배솔과고，감배난도교대，가이고필일개현실합리적PM2.5농도목표화오염물감배계화。유우오염물감배행동섭급구역경제화민생보장，PM2.5농도수도풍력등자연인소적영향교대，경진기지구적무매치리응학정현실가행적농도공제목표，병제정상응적오염물배방량관리목표。
Smog pollution has become one of the most serious environmental problems in China. Chinesegovernment has issued a smog control policy in 2013, which aims to alleviate smog pollution through reducing emission of air pollutants. However, there is a doubt whether the smog concentration target can be achieved through implementation of the air pollutants emission reduction plan. This paper focused upon the numerical relationship between smog concentration and air pollutants emission based on data analysis approach in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results indicated that the smog concentration target cannot be achieved through implementation of the air pollutants emission reduction plan in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and Tianjin and Hebei need to reduce much more air pollutants emission to reach the target. The emission reduction plan of Beijing is too ambitious to be realized in 2017.Even if the emission reduction plan wasrealizedin 2017, Beijing is still difficult to achieve the concentration target (60ppm). The smog control policy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should shift from concentration target to emission control target. Tianjin and Hebei should reduce much more air pollutants emission. Beijing should consider a more reasonable concentration target and emission control plan.