CAJ | 학술논문

我国经济已经从高速增长转向中高速增长的新常态阶段，经济发展方式从规模速度型粗放增长转向质量效率型集约增长，产业结构从劳动密集型向资金密集型和知识密集型转换，经济发展动力从要素驱动、投资驱动转向创新驱动。经济新常态下，环境保护将迎来难得的历史机遇，同时也面临严峻的挑战。为了深入理解和准确把握经济新常态下我国“环境态”的发展特征，本文基于中长期环境经济预测模型定量测算了2020年我国社会经济、能源和水资源以及主要污染物排放趋势和特征。结果表明，“十三五”期间，我国能源和水资源消耗总量增长将趋缓，新增消耗量进入涨幅收窄期；产业转型升级加速将从源头上减轻新增污染减排的压力，主要大气和水污染物排放将进入高位平台期，排放强度将呈现高位回落。
아국경제이경종고속증장전향중고속증장적신상태계단，경제발전방식종규모속도형조방증장전향질량효솔형집약증장，산업결구종노동밀집형향자금밀집형화지식밀집형전환，경제발전동력종요소구동、투자구동전향창신구동。경제신상태하，배경보호장영래난득적역사궤우，동시야면림엄준적도전。위료심입리해화준학파악경제신상태하아국“배경태”적발전특정，본문기우중장기배경경제예측모형정량측산료2020년아국사회경제、능원화수자원이급주요오염물배방추세화특정。결과표명，“십삼오”기간，아국능원화수자원소모총량증장장추완，신증소모량진입창폭수착기；산업전형승급가속장종원두상감경신증오염감배적압력，주요대기화수오염물배방장진입고위평태기，배방강도장정현고위회락。
China’s economy is entering to“new normal” stage, switching from high-speed growth to moderate-speed growth. The pattern of economic development pays more attention to quality and efficiency, rather than scope and speed, of economic growth. The industrial structure switches from labor-intensive industries to capital intensive and knowledge intensive industries. The driving forces of economy also switch from traditional factors, such as labor, land, investment, to innovative technology. Under the new normal economy, environmental protection work will have a rare opportunity to improve China’s environment quality, at the same time, also faces serious challenges. To clearly discern new characteristics of environment in China’s new normal economy, this paper predicted the trend of economy, energy use, water withdrawal and pollution emission in 2020 based on National Long-term Economy-Environment Prediction and Simulation Model (NLEEPSM). The results show that the growth of freshwater and energy consumption will slow down, and incremental quantity of freshwater and energy consumption will less than before; incremental pollution emission will reduced due to accelerated industrial transformation and upgrading, and the emissions of major pollutants will hit a plateau, coupling with sharp decrease of emission intensity.