CAJ | 학술논문

美国对缅甸解禁之后，缅甸成为中美在东亚战略竞争的核心。缅政府和少数民族地方武装均试图利用各方势力达到其政治诉求，因此，缅北局势受多方势力共同影响。当前的缅北局势正是不同主体之间交往关系和交往实践的集中体现，是以美国为首的西方大国势力、中国、缅政府以及少数民族地方武装等主体相互作用的结果。文章从主体间性角度出发，结合全球地缘格局的变化，对缅北局势中的各主体行为及彼此间的关系进行分析，结合调查数据和访谈，对缅甸局势进行了判断。得出的一个基本观点是：短期内，即大选之前，局势动荡，激烈冲突持续；长期内，即大选之后，总体局势趋于和平，伴随间断性的冲突。据此，最后提出，未来中国应该加大政府间合作，防止美国过多介入，改变在缅投资方式，维护中国在缅形象，尝试与少数民族武装和其他政治党派接触，以大国的身份“创造性介入”，妥善解决缅北冲突。
미국대면전해금지후，면전성위중미재동아전략경쟁적핵심。면정부화소수민족지방무장균시도이용각방세력체도기정치소구，인차，면북국세수다방세력공동영향。당전적면북국세정시불동주체지간교왕관계화교왕실천적집중체현，시이미국위수적서방대국세력、중국、면정부이급소수민족지방무장등주체상호작용적결과。문장종주체간성각도출발，결합전구지연격국적변화，대면북국세중적각주체행위급피차간적관계진행분석，결합조사수거화방담，대면전국세진행료판단。득출적일개기본관점시：단기내，즉대선지전，국세동탕，격렬충돌지속；장기내，즉대선지후，총체국세추우화평，반수간단성적충돌。거차，최후제출，미래중국응해가대정부간합작，방지미국과다개입，개변재면투자방식，유호중국재면형상，상시여소수민족무장화기타정치당파접촉，이대국적신빈“창조성개입”，타선해결면북충돌。
After the US resumed official relationship with Myanmar, the nation has become the key area of Sino-US East Asia strategy. The Myanmar government and its local minority ethnic military forces have made any effort to fulfill their political goals. Thus, the political situation of North Myanmar is subject to many parts, and the current situation is reflecting the complicated relationship among different parts, including US, China, Myanmar government and local ethnic military forces. From the perspective of inter-subjectivity, along with global geopolitical changes, we analyzed the actions of main parts and their inter-relationships in the North Myanmar situation. Based on the interview and the investigation data, we inferred the future situation in Myanmar. The conclusion is as follows: in the short run, before the presidential election, the situation will be unstable and with lasting intense tensions; in the long run, after the election, the situation will tends to be pacified but with temporary tensions. It suggests that China should strengthen inter-governmental cooperation to prevent the US intervention in the future, and change its investments, maintain the national image in Myanmar. China can also attempt to keep contact with local military forces and other parties, as an impressive nation, creatively involving the regional affairs to properly solve the conflicts in the North Myanmar.