CAJ | 학술논문

缅甸建国后的数十年里，中央政府与各地少数民族武装之间的冲突一直处于打打停停的战乱状态。然而2009年后缅甸国内冲突开始走向国际化，其未来形势变得异常复杂多变。2015年缅甸国内冲突的规模和持续性更进一步印证了这点。文章从地缘政治学视角，结合实地调研所做的访谈和问卷，得出一个基本观点：缅甸国内地缘冲突已经不再是单纯的国内民族问题，而是全球地缘政治经济格局变化下的大国博弈的焦点之一；全球地缘格局变化导致大国地缘战略在缅甸汇聚，从而导致缅甸在全球地缘区位的变化。缅甸不过是大国全球博弈的一个新战场，再加上缅北和缅甸东部的地理特征和缅甸少数民族武装的地缘关系成就了当前和未来的冲突，乃至缅甸的国内局势走向。
면전건국후적수십년리，중앙정부여각지소수민족무장지간적충돌일직처우타타정정적전란상태。연이2009년후면전국내충돌개시주향국제화，기미래형세변득이상복잡다변。2015년면전국내충돌적규모화지속성경진일보인증료저점。문장종지연정치학시각，결합실지조연소주적방담화문권，득출일개기본관점：면전국내지연충돌이경불재시단순적국내민족문제，이시전구지연정치경제격국변화하적대국박혁적초점지일；전구지연격국변화도치대국지연전략재면전회취，종이도치면전재전구지연구위적변화。면전불과시대국전구박혁적일개신전장，재가상면북화면전동부적지리특정화면전소수민족무장적지연관계성취료당전화미래적충돌，내지면전적국내국세주향。
In the years after Myanmar independence, the conflicts between the central government and local ethnic armies have varied between a state of fighting and periods of relative calm. But after 2009, the conflict in Myanmar began to internationalize, the situation became more complicated, and changed in nature. The scale and the continued fighting in the Myanmar domestic conflict into 2015 confirms this. Based on interviews and a questionnaire, this article confirms the point of view that Myanmar’s domestic geopolitical conflict is no longer just due to domestic ethnic problems, but has come into the sphere of the “big game” between America and China in the context of global geopolitical and economic structural change. The changes in the global geopolitical pattern have led to the convergence of geopolitical strategy between the great powers in Myanmar. The result is the global geopolitical change in the location of Myanmar. Myanmar has become a new front in the global game of great powers, and the geographical characteristics in Northern and eastern Myanmar combined with the ethnic armed geopolitical relations in the north, have changed permanently the geopolitical significance of the conflicts of Myanmar, and altered as well the domestic situation of Myanmar.