CAJ | 학술논문

综合考虑影响输电线路运行状态的内、外两方面因素，提出一种基于马尔可夫链模型的运行状态及其风险的评估方法。首先，利用马尔可夫链外推输电线路运行状态，量化外部条件下的线路初始故障概率，并进一步结合系统潮流水平，计算线路实际运行故障概率。其次，考虑系统运行约束，定义相关故障严重性指标及其基于层次分析权重的综合性指标，对线路故障下的系统“影响”进行量化。最后，利用风险评估思想，将线路故障概率与量化后的“影响”相结合，实现对线路运行风险的评估。仿真结果表明，由于综合考虑了内、外影响因子的作用，并涵盖了多类风险因子的评估指标，所提方法对系统中高风险运行的重要线路有较好的辨识能力，且有效回避了因为部分状态信息缺失造成状态评估实现困难的问题，为输电线路状态检修工作提供了参考。
종합고필영향수전선로운행상태적내、외량방면인소，제출일충기우마이가부련모형적운행상태급기풍험적평고방법。수선，이용마이가부련외추수전선로운행상태，양화외부조건하적선로초시고장개솔，병진일보결합계통조류수평，계산선로실제운행고장개솔。기차，고필계통운행약속，정의상관고장엄중성지표급기기우층차분석권중적종합성지표，대선로고장하적계통“영향”진행양화。최후，이용풍험평고사상，장선로고장개솔여양화후적“영향”상결합，실현대선로운행풍험적평고。방진결과표명，유우종합고필료내、외영향인자적작용，병함개료다류풍험인자적평고지표，소제방법대계통중고풍험운행적중요선로유교호적변식능력，차유효회피료인위부분상태신식결실조성상태평고실현곤난적문제，위수전선로상태검수공작제공료삼고。
By considering the internal and external factors influencing power transmission line running state,a running state and its risk evaluation method based on Markov chain model is proposed.First of all,the initial failure probability caused by external factors is quantified using the Markov chain extrapolated transmission line running state.Furthermore,by referring to the system power flow,the actual failure probability of line is calculated.Secondly,the system operation constraints are considered,the indices of fault severity and their weights based on analytic hierarchy process of an integrated index are defined so that the“impact"of fault on the system is quantified by these indices.Finally,the running state is evaluated based on risk assessment thought by combining the probability and the quantified impact.Simulation results show that owing to the overall consideration of both influencing factors and covering more risk factors,the method has a fairly good ability to recognize a line working at a high risk and likely to damage the system should fault occur.It has bypassed the difficult due to missed information,which may be of reference value to transmission line condition based maintenance research. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51261130472).