四川农业大学学报
四川農業大學學報
사천농업대학학보
JOURNAL OF SICHUAN AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY
2015年
2期
237-244
,共8页
刘颖%周宝同%于晓凤%邵俊明%左敏
劉穎%週寶同%于曉鳳%邵俊明%左敏
류영%주보동%우효봉%소준명%좌민
四川省%耕地面积%动态变化%耕地利用效率
四川省%耕地麵積%動態變化%耕地利用效率
사천성%경지면적%동태변화%경지이용효솔
Sichuan province%cultivated area%dynamic change%using efficiency of cultivated land
【目的】耕地利用效率评价是对耕地投入后的生产效益进行评估,评价其实际效益是否达到了与耕地投入相当的预期效益。【方法】以四川省2000-2012年的耕地总量普查数据为基础,从经济、科技、人口3个方面选取10个指标作为影响耕地总量变化的因子,运用主成分分析法分析引起四川省耕地总量变化的主要驱动因素,在此基础上引入 DEA 模型,建立评价指标体系对历年耕地利用效率进行了测算。【结果】经主成分分析,经济发展与人口因素、农业科技进步因素对所有驱动因子的概括程度为97.926%,因此确定该两个因素为影响四川省耕地面积总量变化主要驱动因素,另外政策因素也在四川省耕地面积总量变化中发挥了重要作用;经数据包络分析,四川省耕地利用综合效率为0.956,纯技术效率为0.999,规模效率为0.957,总体水平较高且稳定性好,全省耕地利用效率未达到最优主要是由规模效率相对较低引起的。【结论】评价方法可为今后研究如何合理利用耕地资源提供更多的思路,结果也可为效益评价提供参考。
【目的】耕地利用效率評價是對耕地投入後的生產效益進行評估,評價其實際效益是否達到瞭與耕地投入相噹的預期效益。【方法】以四川省2000-2012年的耕地總量普查數據為基礎,從經濟、科技、人口3箇方麵選取10箇指標作為影響耕地總量變化的因子,運用主成分分析法分析引起四川省耕地總量變化的主要驅動因素,在此基礎上引入 DEA 模型,建立評價指標體繫對歷年耕地利用效率進行瞭測算。【結果】經主成分分析,經濟髮展與人口因素、農業科技進步因素對所有驅動因子的概括程度為97.926%,因此確定該兩箇因素為影響四川省耕地麵積總量變化主要驅動因素,另外政策因素也在四川省耕地麵積總量變化中髮揮瞭重要作用;經數據包絡分析,四川省耕地利用綜閤效率為0.956,純技術效率為0.999,規模效率為0.957,總體水平較高且穩定性好,全省耕地利用效率未達到最優主要是由規模效率相對較低引起的。【結論】評價方法可為今後研究如何閤理利用耕地資源提供更多的思路,結果也可為效益評價提供參攷。
【목적】경지이용효솔평개시대경지투입후적생산효익진행평고,평개기실제효익시부체도료여경지투입상당적예기효익。【방법】이사천성2000-2012년적경지총량보사수거위기출,종경제、과기、인구3개방면선취10개지표작위영향경지총량변화적인자,운용주성분분석법분석인기사천성경지총량변화적주요구동인소,재차기출상인입 DEA 모형,건립평개지표체계대력년경지이용효솔진행료측산。【결과】경주성분분석,경제발전여인구인소、농업과기진보인소대소유구동인자적개괄정도위97.926%,인차학정해량개인소위영향사천성경지면적총량변화주요구동인소,령외정책인소야재사천성경지면적총량변화중발휘료중요작용;경수거포락분석,사천성경지이용종합효솔위0.956,순기술효솔위0.999,규모효솔위0.957,총체수평교고차은정성호,전성경지이용효솔미체도최우주요시유규모효솔상대교저인기적。【결론】평개방법가위금후연구여하합리이용경지자원제공경다적사로,결과야가위효익평개제공삼고。
Abstrzct:[Objective]The evaluation of using efficiency of cultivated land is the evaluation about the productivity effect after the investment put into the cultivated land,and its aim is to value whether the actual benefits reach the anticipated benefit according to the investment.[Method]Based on the Statistics and Census Data of Sichuan from 2000 to 2012,10 indexes from the field of economy,technology and population were selected as factors which have affect on the change of the quantity of cultivated land,principal component analysis was used to analyze the main driving factors,and DEA (data envelopment analysis)was adopted to build evaluating system to measure the using efficiency of the cultivated land.[Results]The principal component analysis shows that the factors "economy's development and population"and "agricultural science" could summarized all the factors,and the percentage reaches 97.926%,as a result,these two factors were con-firmed to be the main driving factors that leaded to the change of the quantity of cultivated land in Sichuan.besides,the factor"policy"played an important role in the change of cultivated land of Sichuan;The DEA (data envelopment analysis)shows that the comprehensive using efficiency of cultivated land of Sichuan province was 0.956,and the pure technical efficiency was 0.999,and scale efficiency was 0.957,which showed a relatively high level and good stability.[Conclusion]The evaluation method could provide more ideas for future researches on cultivated land use, which could also provide more references for the benefit evaluation of land using.