CAJ | 학술논문

根据世界农业发展规律和农业生产经营规律、新型城镇化及农业现代化的制约和要求，农业生产方式由分散到集中是农业发展的必然趋势和客观要求。论文依据经济学家张五常教授对未来中国农业人口的估计，大致估算出就目前来说，中国的土地流转仍需要28年才能逐步过渡到集中经营，即到21世纪中叶，中国的土地将完成分散经营到集中经营的过渡。就目前而言，中国处于过渡时期，应采取土地经营权适度流转的土地政策，流转过程中要尊重农民的意愿，不能搞行政命令、“一刀切”等，要发挥市场的决定性作用；同时各级政府应恪尽职守，在做好宏观调控的基础上做好基层服务，确保土地经营权流转无“后顾之忧”。
근거세계농업발전규률화농업생산경영규률、신형성진화급농업현대화적제약화요구，농업생산방식유분산도집중시농업발전적필연추세화객관요구。논문의거경제학가장오상교수대미래중국농업인구적고계，대치고산출취목전래설，중국적토지류전잉수요28년재능축보과도도집중경영，즉도21세기중협，중국적토지장완성분산경영도집중경영적과도。취목전이언，중국처우과도시기，응채취토지경영권괄도류전적토지정책，류전과정중요존중농민적의원，불능고행정명령、“일도절”등，요발휘시장적결정성작용；동시각급정부응각진직수，재주호굉관조공적기출상주호기층복무，학보토지경영권류전무“후고지우”。
According to the law of agricultural development in the world,the rules of agricultural production and op-eration,the constraints and requirements of new-type urbanization and agricultural modernization,the mode of agri-cultural production will become centralized,which is the inevitable trend and objective requirement in agricultural development. This article roughly estimates that the land circulation of China still need twenty-eight years to the cen-tralized management,based on the prediction about China's future agricultural population by the economist professor Zhang Wu-chang. That is to say,China will complete the transition that the land management will be decentralized to centralized until middle of this century. For now,China should make the right of land management transfer appro-priately during this transition period. Besides,in the process of transferring,the willingness of farmers should be fully appreciated,administrative orders and the mode of "one-size-fits-all" must be forbidden,and the market should be given sufficient space to play its decisive role. Meanwhile,government at all levels should fulfill their duties and do the basic service work well on the basis of making macroeconomic regulation and control well to make sure the rights of land management transfer safely in the future.