CAJ | 학술논문

为了深入分析辽宁省冬季低温年的演变特征,系统研究辽宁省冬季低温年的主要影响因子,以便为实际气候预测业务提供有价值的参考依据.以辽宁省53个测站1961-2013年月平均的气温资料开展研究,结果表明:辽宁省冬季低温年的发生经历了3个不同的阶段:1961-1986年为第1个阶段,辽宁省冬季低温年连续多次发生:1987-1998年为第2个阶段,无辽宁省冬季低温年出现:1999年以来为第3个阶段,辽宁省冬季低温年和高温年交替发生.1961年以来,辽宁省共出现22个冬季低温年,低温年表现出明显的连续2～3年或以上发生的特点.因子分析表明北极涛动(A0)、经向型大气环流、东亚冬季风、拉尼娜事件是辽宁省冬季低温年的主要影响因子,拉尼娜事件和AO负位相是辽宁省冬季低温年的主导因素,而东亚冬季风偏强是造成辽宁省冬季低温年的关键因素.
위료심입분석요녕성동계저온년적연변특정,계통연구요녕성동계저온년적주요영향인자,이편위실제기후예측업무제공유개치적삼고의거.이요녕성53개측참1961-2013년월평균적기온자료개전연구,결과표명:요녕성동계저온년적발생경력료3개불동적계단:1961-1986년위제1개계단,요녕성동계저온년련속다차발생:1987-1998년위제2개계단,무요녕성동계저온년출현:1999년이래위제3개계단,요녕성동계저온년화고온년교체발생.1961년이래,요녕성공출현22개동계저온년,저온년표현출명현적련속2～3년혹이상발생적특점.인자분석표명북겁도동(A0)、경향형대기배류、동아동계풍、랍니나사건시요녕성동계저온년적주요영향인자,랍니나사건화AO부위상시요녕성동계저온년적주도인소,이동아동계풍편강시조성요녕성동계저온년적관건인소.
In order to analyze the variation characteristics of winter low temperature years in Liaoning Province, the impact factors of winter low temperature years in Liaoning Province was systematically studied, so as to provide valuable reference for the climatic prediction.Based on the monthly mean temperature data of 53 observational stations in Liaoning Province during 1961 to 2013,this study was carried out.Results showed that winter low temperature years in Liaoning Province had three phases:Low temperature years in Liaoning continuous appeared during 1961 to 1986.During 1987 tol998 there was no low temperature event appeared.Low temperature event and high temperature event appeared alternately during 1999 to 2013. During 1961 to 2013, there were 22 times of low temperature event appeared.The characteristic of extreme low temperature years showed continuous 2 to 3 years or more.The study of impact factors demonstrate that, AO, meridional circulation, East Asian winter monsoon and La nina are the impact factors of low temperature years in Liaoning Province.The leading impact factors are La mna and the negative phase of AO, and the strong phase of East Asian winter monsoon was the key impact factor.