CAJ | 학술논문

为了建立鄂温克族自治旗羊草返青期预报模型，首先对该旗30年的4月18日和4月28日20～30cm土层土壤相对湿度、近22年羊草返青日期及牧草返青日数、各月温度进行了统计分析。结果表明，20～30cm土层土壤相对湿度及牧草返青日数不是影响牧草返青的主要因素，而温度是影响羊草返青的主要因素。在此基础上，根据羊草返青期与3－5月、3－4月均温之间的相关关系，建立了鄂温克族自治旗羊草返青期预报模型：Y=-2.34×T3-5＋123.38，Y=-1.79×T3-4＋113.41。建立的模型可为及时、准确地开展天然草场牧草返青期预报工作提供理论依据。
위료건립악온극족자치기양초반청기예보모형，수선대해기30년적4월18일화4월28일20～30cm토층토양상대습도、근22년양초반청일기급목초반청일수、각월온도진행료통계분석。결과표명，20～30cm토층토양상대습도급목초반청일수불시영향목초반청적주요인소，이온도시영향양초반청적주요인소。재차기출상，근거양초반청기여3－5월、3－4월균온지간적상관관계，건립료악온극족자치기양초반청기예보모형：Y=-2.34×T3-5＋123.38，Y=-1.79×T3-4＋113.41。건립적모형가위급시、준학지개전천연초장목초반청기예보공작제공이론의거。
In order establish forecast model for returning green stage of Leymus chinensis in Ewenke Autonomous County,the relative soil moisture of soil layer in depth of 20-30cm of April 18th and 28th of the recent 30 years,returning green date and returning green days of Leymus chinensis in recent 22 years and the temperature of each month in recent 22 years were statistically analyzed.The results showed that the relative soil moisture of soil layer in depth of 20-30 cm and the returning green days of Leymus chinensis was not the main factor that influencing returning green stage Ctemperature was the main factor that influencing returning green stage.Based on the correlation between returning green date of Leymus chinensis and average temperature of Match to May and Match to April,the forecast model for returning green stage of Leymus chinensis in Ewenke Autonomous County was established as Y=-2.34×T3-5+123.38,Y=-1.79×T3-4+113.41. The established model would provide theoretical basis for the timely and accurate forecast of returning green stage of natural pasture forage.