CAJ | 학술논문

综合评价方法一般是对总体资料(特定空间和时间)进行评价。在某些特殊情形下，需要对样本资料进行评价，那么在综合排序时有必要考虑抽样误差对排序结果的影响。然而目前综合评价方法对评价结果只能描述，不能进行统计推断，因此存在着抽样误差的估计问题。本文利用Monte Carlo模拟方法求解排序结果的概率并给出Matlab程序，基于模拟结果，将综合评价的传统“绝对结论”改为“概率结论”，提出了一种新的综合评价结果排序的方法及新的结果分档法。
종합평개방법일반시대총체자료(특정공간화시간)진행평개。재모사특수정형하，수요대양본자료진행평개，나요재종합배서시유필요고필추양오차대배서결과적영향。연이목전종합평개방법대평개결과지능묘술，불능진행통계추단，인차존재착추양오차적고계문제。본문이용Monte Carlo모의방법구해배서결과적개솔병급출Matlab정서，기우모의결과，장종합평개적전통“절대결론”개위“개솔결론”，제출료일충신적종합평개결과배서적방법급신적결과분당법。
Comprehensive evaluation methods are generally used to assess the population data. When we need to estimate the sample data in special situations, the impacts brought by the sampling error should be considered. Due to lack of the accurate measurement for the sensitivity and stability in the comprehensive evaluation methods, sampling errors usually cannot be estimated in the sampling research. Monte Carlo simulation was used in this article to solve the probability of the ordering results, and the matlab programs were presented. Based on the simulated results, we change the conventional “absolute conclusion” of comprehensive evaluation methods to “probability results” for the sample data, and put forward a new sorting and ranking method for the results of comprehensive evaluation.