西南师范大学学报(自然科学版)
西南師範大學學報(自然科學版)
서남사범대학학보(자연과학판)
JOURNAL OF SOUTHWEST CHINA NORMAL UNIVERSITY
2015年
6期
24-29
,共6页
潘小艳%周文佐%张建平%王靖
潘小豔%週文佐%張建平%王靖
반소염%주문좌%장건평%왕정
积温%时空变化%G IS%重庆市%农作物生产
積溫%時空變化%G IS%重慶市%農作物生產
적온%시공변화%G IS%중경시%농작물생산
accumulated temperature%spatio-temporal changes%GIS,Chongqing%crop production
基于重庆市34个气象站点1961-2010年的气象资料、DEM以及农业统计年鉴,本文首先利用回归分析法计算重庆地区积温与高程的关系模型;其次结合GIS技术对积温进行地形校正,得到重庆市以10年为尺度的积温栅格面;再对其进行空间分析和统计分析,研究它近50年的变化特征并分析其对农作物生产的影响。结果表明:①重庆市≥10℃平均积温值经历了先降后升的过程,其中上世纪80年代最低,21世纪第一个10年最高;≥10℃积温分布以积温段ⅳ(4000~5000℃)、积温段ⅴ(>5000℃)为主,二者所占面积比例之和约为75%;积温段ⅱ(2000~3000℃)、ⅲ(3000~4000℃)、ⅳ(4000~5000℃)的面积总体上呈现先增加后降低的趋势;积温段ⅰ(≤2000℃)变化复杂;②各年代的积温空间演变均以无变化区所占面积比例最大;上世纪60到70、80到90年代的积温段变化单一,其他各年代间积温段的变化较复杂;③上世纪80年代后,随着积温的升高,稻谷等作物的种植面积缩小,而稻谷、油菜等作物单产增加,但农用化肥施用量和农药施用量也随之增加。
基于重慶市34箇氣象站點1961-2010年的氣象資料、DEM以及農業統計年鑒,本文首先利用迴歸分析法計算重慶地區積溫與高程的關繫模型;其次結閤GIS技術對積溫進行地形校正,得到重慶市以10年為呎度的積溫柵格麵;再對其進行空間分析和統計分析,研究它近50年的變化特徵併分析其對農作物生產的影響。結果錶明:①重慶市≥10℃平均積溫值經歷瞭先降後升的過程,其中上世紀80年代最低,21世紀第一箇10年最高;≥10℃積溫分佈以積溫段ⅳ(4000~5000℃)、積溫段ⅴ(>5000℃)為主,二者所佔麵積比例之和約為75%;積溫段ⅱ(2000~3000℃)、ⅲ(3000~4000℃)、ⅳ(4000~5000℃)的麵積總體上呈現先增加後降低的趨勢;積溫段ⅰ(≤2000℃)變化複雜;②各年代的積溫空間縯變均以無變化區所佔麵積比例最大;上世紀60到70、80到90年代的積溫段變化單一,其他各年代間積溫段的變化較複雜;③上世紀80年代後,隨著積溫的升高,稻穀等作物的種植麵積縮小,而稻穀、油菜等作物單產增加,但農用化肥施用量和農藥施用量也隨之增加。
기우중경시34개기상참점1961-2010년적기상자료、DEM이급농업통계년감,본문수선이용회귀분석법계산중경지구적온여고정적관계모형;기차결합GIS기술대적온진행지형교정,득도중경시이10년위척도적적온책격면;재대기진행공간분석화통계분석,연구타근50년적변화특정병분석기대농작물생산적영향。결과표명:①중경시≥10℃평균적온치경력료선강후승적과정,기중상세기80년대최저,21세기제일개10년최고;≥10℃적온분포이적온단ⅳ(4000~5000℃)、적온단ⅴ(>5000℃)위주,이자소점면적비례지화약위75%;적온단ⅱ(2000~3000℃)、ⅲ(3000~4000℃)、ⅳ(4000~5000℃)적면적총체상정현선증가후강저적추세;적온단ⅰ(≤2000℃)변화복잡;②각년대적적온공간연변균이무변화구소점면적비례최대;상세기60도70、80도90년대적적온단변화단일,기타각년대간적온단적변화교복잡;③상세기80년대후,수착적온적승고,도곡등작물적충식면적축소,이도곡、유채등작물단산증가,단농용화비시용량화농약시용량야수지증가。
With regression analysis , relational models of accumulated temperature and elevation in Chongqing region has been deduced based on the data of mean daily air temperature recoded in 34 meteoro‐logical stations in Chongqing from 1961to 2010 ,the digital elevation model of Chongqing and Chongqing Agricultural Statistical Annual . Then , accumulated temperature grid surfaces for 10 years scale of Chongqing have been achieved with the GIS technology to emendate accumulated temperature according to terrain .Finally ,spatial analysis and statistical analysis of the accumulated temperature grid surfaces have been made to study their variation characteristics during recent 50 years and analyze their impact on crop production .The results showed that 1) the average value of ≥10℃ accumulated temperature of Chongqing experienced an earlier decreasing and later raising process in which the lowest value occurred in the 1980s and highest in the first decade of the 21st century .T he accumulated temperature segment iv and v ,w hich totally accounted for about 75% were the main proportion of the distribution of the ≥10℃ accumulated temperature .The total areas of accumulated temperature segment ii ,iii and iv showed a trend of decrease after increase .Nevertheless ,the accumulated temperature segment i changed in complex .2) the un‐changed areas of accumulated temperature spatial evolution of each decade occupied the largest ratio .From 1960s to 1970s and 1980s to 1990s in the last century ,the accumulated temperature segments changed in a single ,but the accumulated temperature segments between the other years changed more complicatedly . 3) after the 1980s ,with the rise of accumulated temperature ,yields of rice ,rapeseed and other crops in‐creased despite though the area of rice and other crops had been reduced .Meanwhile ,the application a‐mount of agricultural fertilizer and pesticides had been increased as well .