CAJ | 학술논문

为较全面地对格尔木市生态经济损失进行定性和定量评价，有效地预测格尔木市在经济快速发展过程中生态经济损失的量，本文采用系统动力学方法，利用Vensim软件构建格尔木市生态经济损失的系统动力学模型。通过对模型运行，得出2023年格尔木市生产总值将达到约754.914亿元，而生态经济损失达到210.106亿元，占生产总值比重约为27.8％。测算结果表明，格尔木市未来生态经济损失将呈逐年上升趋势，仍需加强生态建设和环境治理的投入力度，合理调整产业结构，提升资源综合利用率。
위교전면지대격이목시생태경제손실진행정성화정량평개，유효지예측격이목시재경제쾌속발전과정중생태경제손실적량，본문채용계통동역학방법，이용Vensim연건구건격이목시생태경제손실적계통동역학모형。통과대모형운행，득출2023년격이목시생산총치장체도약754.914억원，이생태경제손실체도210.106억원，점생산총치비중약위27.8％。측산결과표명，격이목시미래생태경제손실장정축년상승추세，잉수가강생태건설화배경치리적투입력도，합리조정산업결구，제승자원종합이용솔。
In order to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate ecological economic losses of Geermu , and effectively predict ecological economic losses of Geermu in the process of rapid economic devel -opment,this paper adopted system dynamics method and used Vensim software to build system dy-namics model of ecological economic losses of Geermu .Through running the model ,the GDP in 2023 would reach about 75.491 4 billion yuan ,and ecological economic losses would reach about 21.010 6 billion yuan ,accounting for about 27 .8%of the total GDP .It turned out that ecological economic losses would be an upward trend in the future in Geermu .Geermu still should increase investment of the ecological construction and environmental governance ,adjust the industrial structure and promote resources comprehensive utilization .