中国基础科学
中國基礎科學
중국기출과학
CHINA BASIC SCIENCE
2015年
2期
15-21
,共7页
气候变化%水循环%冰川退缩%径流分割极端事件
氣候變化%水循環%冰川退縮%徑流分割極耑事件
기후변화%수순배%빙천퇴축%경류분할겁단사건
climate change%water cycle%glacial reces-sion%runoff and base flow separation%extreme events
西北干旱区是对全球变化响应最敏感的地区之一,“气候变化对西北干旱区水循环影响机理与水资源安全研究”项目,以全球变化背景下的西北干旱区气候-水文过程、水循环机理、水资源形成与转化以及未来变化趋势为主线,重建了过去300年西北干旱区气候变化序列,分析了气候变化对水循环关键过程和水系统的影响,构建了适合山盆地貌格局的水文、水资源模型,分析了未来水资源变化趋势,得出了一系列有意义的结论:在过去300年间,西北干旱区以冷干、暖湿气候类型交替出现,存在40年的变化周期;在近50年,温度、降水出现了“突变型”升高,自1997年以来,升温滞缓,处于高位震荡;蒸发潜力由显著下降逆转为显著上升趋势,水循环过程加剧;极端气候水文事件频度增强、频率加大,水文波动性增强、水资源不确定性增大;天山山区冰川加速退缩,冰雪水储量呈减少态势,部分河流出现冰川消融拐点;水系统安全性降低,供需水矛盾会进一步加剧;伴随气温的高位震荡和地下水的超采,西北干旱区的生态隐忧和潜在风险加大。
西北榦旱區是對全毬變化響應最敏感的地區之一,“氣候變化對西北榦旱區水循環影響機理與水資源安全研究”項目,以全毬變化揹景下的西北榦旱區氣候-水文過程、水循環機理、水資源形成與轉化以及未來變化趨勢為主線,重建瞭過去300年西北榦旱區氣候變化序列,分析瞭氣候變化對水循環關鍵過程和水繫統的影響,構建瞭適閤山盆地貌格跼的水文、水資源模型,分析瞭未來水資源變化趨勢,得齣瞭一繫列有意義的結論:在過去300年間,西北榦旱區以冷榦、暖濕氣候類型交替齣現,存在40年的變化週期;在近50年,溫度、降水齣現瞭“突變型”升高,自1997年以來,升溫滯緩,處于高位震盪;蒸髮潛力由顯著下降逆轉為顯著上升趨勢,水循環過程加劇;極耑氣候水文事件頻度增彊、頻率加大,水文波動性增彊、水資源不確定性增大;天山山區冰川加速退縮,冰雪水儲量呈減少態勢,部分河流齣現冰川消融枴點;水繫統安全性降低,供需水矛盾會進一步加劇;伴隨氣溫的高位震盪和地下水的超採,西北榦旱區的生態隱憂和潛在風險加大。
서북간한구시대전구변화향응최민감적지구지일,“기후변화대서북간한구수순배영향궤리여수자원안전연구”항목,이전구변화배경하적서북간한구기후-수문과정、수순배궤리、수자원형성여전화이급미래변화추세위주선,중건료과거300년서북간한구기후변화서렬,분석료기후변화대수순배관건과정화수계통적영향,구건료괄합산분지모격국적수문、수자원모형,분석료미래수자원변화추세,득출료일계렬유의의적결론:재과거300년간,서북간한구이랭간、난습기후류형교체출현,존재40년적변화주기;재근50년,온도、강수출현료“돌변형”승고,자1997년이래,승온체완,처우고위진탕;증발잠력유현저하강역전위현저상승추세,수순배과정가극;겁단기후수문사건빈도증강、빈솔가대,수문파동성증강、수자원불학정성증대;천산산구빙천가속퇴축,빙설수저량정감소태세,부분하류출현빙천소융괴점;수계통안전성강저,공수수모순회진일보가극;반수기온적고위진탕화지하수적초채,서북간한구적생태은우화잠재풍험가대。
The arid region of Northwest China is a special nat- <br> ural unit, which responds sensitively to the global cli-mate change. The project of “Impacts of climate change on the water cycle mechanism and water resources secu-rity in the arid region of Northwest China” focused on the key issues of climate-hydrological processes, mecha-nism of water formation and transformation, and its re-sponses to climate change; reconstruction of the climate change series during the past 300 years, hydrological and water resources model, and estimation of future trends in water resources. The main findings are as fol-lows: (1) the cold-dry and warm-wet climate types ap-peared alternately during the past 300 years, which has about 40 years cycle. (2) The air temperature and pre-cipitation in the arid region of northwest China had a significant step increasing trend in the past 50 years, however, the sharp increasing trend has retard since 1997. (3) Pan evaporation in the region exhibited an obvious decreasing trend until early 1990s, and then re-versed to upward, the water cycle is intensifying. (4) The frequency of climate and hydrological extreme events increased; also the uncertainty of water resources has increased. ( 5 ) The glacier change has exerted great impact on water resources, and many rivers have passed the “ Glacier inflexion”; also the water storage decreased in the Tianshan Mountains. (6) Water sys-tem security has reduced the contradictions of water supply and demand will be intensified. (7) the negative effects on ecology have been highlighted. In the future, the water crisis in the eastern in this region will be ex-acerbated.