CAJ | 학술논문

基于美国环保署现行健康风险评价体系的理论、方法和实例污染场址情景构建了土壤重金属污染的多途径健康风险评价模型,而后利用 Monte-Carlo 模拟法和敏感度分析技术初步量化研究了评价中参数不确定性的影响程度,并筛选得出相关敏感参数.结果表明：确定性评价下实例区域土壤中 Cd 和 Ni 的非致癌风险(HI)均小于1(HICd >HINi ),对目标受体暂时不会造成非致癌健康风险；而 Cd 的致癌风险(R Cd )大于1.0×10-6,已可能对目标受体造成致癌风险；在参数 Monte-Carlo 模拟的辅助下,参数不确定性对于非致癌风险值的影响波动在0.1~0.2以内,而其引起致癌风险值的波动在1个数量级以内,实例中 R Cd的模拟值区间横跨1.0×10-6,可能误导决策；敏感度分析结果表明应重点对实例区域蔬菜和土壤中的 Cd 浓度及区域目标受体体重这3个敏感参数进行资料搜集,如此可以在有效提高风险评价可信度的同时降低不必要的预算开支.
기우미국배보서현행건강풍험평개체계적이론、방법화실례오염장지정경구건료토양중금속오염적다도경건강풍험평개모형,이후이용 Monte-Carlo 모의법화민감도분석기술초보양화연구료평개중삼수불학정성적영향정도,병사선득출상관민감삼수.결과표명：학정성평개하실례구역토양중 Cd 화 Ni 적비치암풍험(HI)균소우1(HICd >HINi ),대목표수체잠시불회조성비치암건강풍험；이 Cd 적치암풍험(R Cd )대우1.0×10-6,이가능대목표수체조성치암풍험；재삼수 Monte-Carlo 모의적보조하,삼수불학정성대우비치암풍험치적영향파동재0.1~0.2이내,이기인기치암풍험치적파동재1개수량급이내,실례중 R Cd적모의치구간횡과1.0×10-6,가능오도결책；민감도분석결과표명응중점대실례구역소채화토양중적 Cd 농도급구역목표수체체중저3개민감삼수진행자료수집,여차가이재유효제고풍험평개가신도적동시강저불필요적예산개지.
Based on USEPA framework of health risk assessment,the multi-pathway health risk as-sessment model was developed for heavy metals in the case soils.Monte-Carlo simulation was adopted to quantitatively study the effect degree of parameter uncertainty on assessment result,and sensitive parame-ters were further identified by sensitivity analysis.The results without Monte-Carlo simulation showed that there was no non-carcinogenic risk because of 1>HICd >HINi while it was under carcinogenic risk due to R Cd >1.0×10 -6 .However,with the Monte-Carlo simulation of selected variables,it indicated that the parameter uncertainty made the non-carcinogenic risk assessment results varying within 0.1 ~0.2,and the carcinogenic risk assessment results varying in the range within 1 order of magnitudes.Therefore,the parameter uncertainty made the value range of R Cd span 1.0×10 -6 and it was probable to mislead the corre-sponding decision-making.Sensitivity analysis indicated that the contents of C d in case soils and vegeta-bles,and the weight for the target receptor should be treated as sensitive variables,which were the main source of parameter uncertainty.To further improve the credibility of assessment with cost-benefit con-sideration,data of the sensitive variables should be preferentially gathered.