CAJ | 학술논문

计划评审技术（program evaluation and review technique，PERT）自提出以来被广泛用于具有不确定时间参数项目的分析评估中，但经典 PERT 不能对具有随机后续工序的情况进行建模，而且存在时间参数估计主观性强，估计误差较大等不足。本文提出在经典 PERT 模型中加入跳转虚工序的方法增强其对随机工序的建模能力，并提出了相应的分析评估方法。另外，提出了基于德尔菲评估法与专家权重相结合并综合相似工序的历史数据的方法克服经典方法在时间参数确定方面的不足。最后，利用某装备的使用保障过程 PERT 建模分析实例验证了该方法的有效性。
계화평심기술（program evaluation and review technique，PERT）자제출이래피엄범용우구유불학정시간삼수항목적분석평고중，단경전 PERT 불능대구유수궤후속공서적정황진행건모，이차존재시간삼수고계주관성강，고계오차교대등불족。본문제출재경전 PERT 모형중가입도전허공서적방법증강기대수궤공서적건모능력，병제출료상응적분석평고방법。령외，제출료기우덕이비평고법여전가권중상결합병종합상사공서적역사수거적방법극복경전방법재시간삼수학정방면적불족。최후，이용모장비적사용보장과정 PERT 건모분석실례험증료해방법적유효성。
The program evaluation and review technique (PERT)is widely taken into analysis and evalua-tion of programs which include random time parameters,but the classical PERT is limited in modeling the case including random after working procedure and the method of time parameters evaluation is subjectivity and inac-curate.A jump virtual working procedure concept and its analysis method are proposed to enhance the modeling ability of the classical PERT.Moreover,a new time parameters evaluation theory is presented to improve the reliability of parameters,which combines the Delphi evaluation method with experts’weight and takes the simi-lar history data into account.Finally,a detaild analysis and evaluation of the operation support process of equip-ment based on the improved PERT validates the practicability of the proposed method.