CAJ | 학술논문

针对大型船舶装备中存在的串、并、旁、表决等混联组成的部分复杂系统结构，在开展系统可靠性预计时难以推导其可靠性数学解析公式的问题，提出一种基于蒙特卡罗仿真的可靠性预计方法，并通过对比数学解析方法来验证新方法的准确性和适用性。最后以某潜艇操舵系统为例，验证基于蒙特卡罗仿真的系统可靠性预计方法对复杂混联系统具有更好的普适性。
침대대형선박장비중존재적천、병、방、표결등혼련조성적부분복잡계통결구，재개전계통가고성예계시난이추도기가고성수학해석공식적문제，제출일충기우몽특잡라방진적가고성예계방법，병통과대비수학해석방법래험증신방법적준학성화괄용성。최후이모잠정조타계통위례，험증기우몽특잡라방진적계통가고성예계방법대복잡혼련계통구유경호적보괄성。
For large ship equipment′ s complex system structure formed by the series, parallel, bypass, voting model, the mathematical formula of system reliability prediction is difficlut to infer. A system reliability prediction method based on mento carlo simulation is put forward and proved to be the same accurate and applicable as the method based on mathematical formula. In the end, take the steering system for example to prove the system reliability prediction method based on mento carlo simulation is more general adaptation for the complex mix system than that based on mathematical formula.