CAJ | 학술논문

利用自动气象站资料、常规气象观测资料、NCEP全球再分析资料及WAVEWATCH III模式预报资等料对2012年11月28日大连翻船事故的大风大浪实况、事故成因及演变情况进行分析。结果表明：大连此次翻船事故高空的强冷空气促使冷涡加强，西部大陆高压和蒙古气旋不断加强东移，东南部海上高压稳定少动，蒙古气旋底前部与海上高压顶后部梯度加大，梯度密集区正好位于渤海海峡，造成黄海和渤海偏西大风；低层辐散和中层辐合的垂直结构加强了低层以下的上下扰动，构成南北垂直环流，中层以下动力强迫下沉气流将北侧中层的动量下传至辽东半岛南部地面及黄海、渤海海面，使其不断获得动能，有利于偏西大风的加强；西南向岸大风有利于浪高增长，偏西大风及与其同时增长的大浪是大连地区此次翻船事故的主要原因。
이용자동기상참자료、상규기상관측자료、NCEP전구재분석자료급WAVEWATCH III모식예보자등료대2012년11월28일대련번선사고적대풍대랑실황、사고성인급연변정황진행분석。결과표명：대련차차번선사고고공적강랭공기촉사랭와가강，서부대륙고압화몽고기선불단가강동이，동남부해상고압은정소동，몽고기선저전부여해상고압정후부제도가대，제도밀집구정호위우발해해협，조성황해화발해편서대풍；저층복산화중층복합적수직결구가강료저층이하적상하우동，구성남북수직배류，중층이하동력강박하침기류장북측중층적동량하전지료동반도남부지면급황해、발해해면，사기불단획득동능，유리우편서대풍적가강；서남향안대풍유리우랑고증장，편서대풍급여기동시증장적대랑시대련지구차차번선사고적주요원인。
Based on the meteorological data from weather stations and the NCEP reanalysis data as well as predic-tion data from a WAVEWATCH III model,strong wind and wave,forming reason and evolution of a shipwreck accident on November 28,2012 in Dalian were analyzed.The results show that upper-level strong cold air makes cold vortex strengthened,and western continental high pressure and Mongolian cyclone become strong and move eastward.High pressure over the sea surface in the southeast stagnates.It increases for pressure gradient in the front bottom of Mongolian cyclone and the rear top of high pressure over the sea.The intensive region of pressure gradi-ent is located in the Bohai strait,which leads to strong westerly wind over the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea.Low-level divergence and mid-level convergence promote the vertical disturbance below the low-level and forms N-S vertical circulation.Downward flow below the mid-level forces mid-level momentum in the north side to surface in the south of Liaodong Peninsula and sea surface of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea.This pattern strengthens westerly wind.Southwestward onshore wind contributes to the increase of wave height.Strong westerly wind and simultaneous increased wave height lead to the shipwreck accident.