CAJ | 학술논문

采用统计方法结合气象台站历史沿革信息，对1910—2010年洞庭湖区逐月降水量观测资料进行均一化处理，并利用洞庭湖周边气象台站资料对洞庭湖区1951年以前缺测的降水资料进行插补，构成完整均一的降水序列。在此基础上，构建洞庭湖区近百年降水序列并分析其变化特征。结果表明：1910—2010年洞庭湖区年及春、夏、秋三季降水量的变化趋势不显著，冬季降水量呈显著上升的趋势；年降水量存在准3、6、8 a和20 a等多时间尺度的振荡周期；小波分析显示，近百年洞庭湖区年降水量和冬季降水量均存在显著增多的突变。
채용통계방법결합기상태참역사연혁신식，대1910—2010년동정호구축월강수량관측자료진행균일화처리，병이용동정호주변기상태참자료대동정호구1951년이전결측적강수자료진행삽보，구성완정균일적강수서렬。재차기출상，구건동정호구근백년강수서렬병분석기변화특정。결과표명：1910—2010년동정호구년급춘、하、추삼계강수량적변화추세불현저，동계강수량정현저상승적추세；년강수량존재준3、6、8 a화20 a등다시간척도적진탕주기；소파분석현시，근백년동정호구년강수량화동계강수량균존재현저증다적돌변。
Based on historical information of weather stations,daily precipitation series data in each weather station of Dongting Lake region during 1910 to 2010 were tested for their homogeneity by a statistical method.The miss-ing data before 195 1 were interpolated by surrounding weather stations in order to get a complete and homogene-ous series.Precipitation series in the recent 100 years were then rebuilt and its change characteristics were ana-lyzed.The results indicate that annual precipitation in Dongting Lake region during 1910 to 2010 has not a signifi-cant trend,so is in spring,summer and autumn,while precipitationin winter is in a significant increasing trend. There are different cycles with 3 years,6 years,8 years and 20 years for annual precipitation over Dongting Lake region.Wavelet analysis suggests that annual precipitation has an abrupt increasing change,so is winter precipitati-on.