CAJ | 학술논문

利用常规气象观测资料和NECP的1°×1°再分析资料，从暴雨特征、天气背景和暴雨发生的动力、水汽、热力条件及非地转湿Q矢量等方面对2010年7月8—13日和2012年7月12—19日湖南两次大范围暴雨天气过程进行对比分析，并对暴雨造成的洪涝灾害成因进行阐述。结果表明：湖南两次暴雨过程的环流形势和水汽输送路径均存在一定程度的相似性；东北低涡和低层切变线是造成两次持续性暴雨过程的主要影响系统；850 hPa的θse高值区、垂直上升速度中心及湿Q矢量负值区与暴雨落区有较好的对应关系，对暴雨预报有一定的指示作用。第二次暴雨过程冷空气势力比第一次暴雨过程更强，低层切变线在湘北及湘中偏南地区摆动，使较强水汽辐合在中低层维持了5 d，因此第二次暴雨过程影响范围更广且持续时间更长。而第一次暴雨过程副热带高压更强盛，高、低空急流耦合作用更明显，垂直上升气流更强，高能高湿更易触发短时强降水；同时由于第一次暴雨过程开始前湖南全省降雨已经明显偏多，且强降雨带集中在湘北地区，加之受灾最严重的地区又属于地质灾害多发区，从而更易导致滑坡、崩塌和泥石流的发生。
이용상규기상관측자료화NECP적1°×1°재분석자료，종폭우특정、천기배경화폭우발생적동력、수기、열력조건급비지전습Q시량등방면대2010년7월8—13일화2012년7월12—19일호남량차대범위폭우천기과정진행대비분석，병대폭우조성적홍로재해성인진행천술。결과표명：호남량차폭우과정적배류형세화수기수송로경균존재일정정도적상사성；동북저와화저층절변선시조성량차지속성폭우과정적주요영향계통；850 hPa적θse고치구、수직상승속도중심급습Q시량부치구여폭우락구유교호적대응관계，대폭우예보유일정적지시작용。제이차폭우과정랭공기세력비제일차폭우과정경강，저층절변선재상북급상중편남지구파동，사교강수기복합재중저층유지료5 d，인차제이차폭우과정영향범위경엄차지속시간경장。이제일차폭우과정부열대고압경강성，고、저공급류우합작용경명현，수직상승기류경강，고능고습경역촉발단시강강수；동시유우제일차폭우과정개시전호남전성강우이경명현편다，차강강우대집중재상북지구，가지수재최엄중적지구우속우지질재해다발구，종이경역도치활파、붕탑화니석류적발생。
Based on the conventional observation data and the NCEP reanalysis data (1 °×1 °),rainstorm character-istics,synoptic background,dynamical conditions,thermodynamic and water vapor conditions and geostrophic wet Q-vector of two wide range rainstorm processes on July 8-13,2010 and on July 12-19,2012 were analyzed,and forming reasons of flood disaster caused by rainstorm were discussed.The results show that both rainstorm proces-ses have the same background circulation and the path of water vapor transport.The main impacting systems of these two rainstorms are northeast cold vortex and low level shear line.The locations ofθse center,vertical upward velocity center and negative areas of the wet Q-vector at 850 hPa are coincident well with those of falling area of rainstorm,which is of indicative to rainstorm forecasting.Cold air intensity is stronger in the second process than in the first process,and shear line in low level swings in the north and middle areas of Hu′nan province,which makes stronger vapor convergence maintained in the middle and low levels about five days,so it has wider ranges and longer duration for the second process.However,the subtropical high,upper and lower jet and vertical updraft air flow in the first process are obviously stronger than those in the second one,and higher energy and higher humidity make it easy to trigger short-time strong precipitation.At the same time,there have already been positive anomaly in the rainfall amount in the whole province before the first process starts,and strong precipitation belt concentrates in the north of Hu′nan province where it is the geological disaster-prone areas,especially in the most serious disas-ter area.Thus,the landslides,avalanches and mudslides easily occur in the first process.