农林经济管理学报
農林經濟管理學報
농림경제관이학보
Journal of Jiangxi Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition)
2015年
3期
309-318
,共10页
共同但有区别责任%全球HWP碳库%技术效率%减排分担
共同但有區彆責任%全毬HWP碳庫%技術效率%減排分擔
공동단유구별책임%전구HWP탄고%기술효솔%감배분담
common but differentiated responsibilities%global HWP carbon pool%technological efficiency%alternative emission burden sharing
从“减排能力原则”的视角，依据全球20个代表性HWP生产国的经济发展水平和技术效率提升速率设置4个分析情景，使用GFPM模型模拟并评价2010—2030年全球HWP碳库变动和相应的责任分担。研究表明：①技术效率是提升全球HWP碳库水平的重要因素，发达国家若以既定于样本国平均进步速率提升自身技术效率，可以实现2．9×103 TgC的全球碳库增量。②发达国家HWP碳库替代减排的能力较强，应承担76％～97％的责任，发展中国家的减排分担仅需发达国家的11％～31％。③美国、瑞典、芬兰和德国是全球HWP碳库替代减排责任的主要承担国，中国技术效率优势明显，其HWP碳库的减排替代将在未来应对气候变化中具有重要的分担贡献。
從“減排能力原則”的視角，依據全毬20箇代錶性HWP生產國的經濟髮展水平和技術效率提升速率設置4箇分析情景，使用GFPM模型模擬併評價2010—2030年全毬HWP碳庫變動和相應的責任分擔。研究錶明：①技術效率是提升全毬HWP碳庫水平的重要因素，髮達國傢若以既定于樣本國平均進步速率提升自身技術效率，可以實現2．9×103 TgC的全毬碳庫增量。②髮達國傢HWP碳庫替代減排的能力較彊，應承擔76％～97％的責任，髮展中國傢的減排分擔僅需髮達國傢的11％～31％。③美國、瑞典、芬蘭和德國是全毬HWP碳庫替代減排責任的主要承擔國，中國技術效率優勢明顯，其HWP碳庫的減排替代將在未來應對氣候變化中具有重要的分擔貢獻。
종“감배능력원칙”적시각，의거전구20개대표성HWP생산국적경제발전수평화기술효솔제승속솔설치4개분석정경，사용GFPM모형모의병평개2010—2030년전구HWP탄고변동화상응적책임분담。연구표명：①기술효솔시제승전구HWP탄고수평적중요인소，발체국가약이기정우양본국평균진보속솔제승자신기술효솔，가이실현2．9×103 TgC적전구탄고증량。②발체국가HWP탄고체대감배적능력교강，응승담76％～97％적책임，발전중국가적감배분담부수발체국가적11％～31％。③미국、서전、분란화덕국시전구HWP탄고체대감배책임적주요승담국，중국기술효솔우세명현，기HWP탄고적감배체대장재미래응대기후변화중구유중요적분담공헌。
“Common but Differentiated Responsibilities”is the main principal of emission reduction bur?den sharing among countries under the context of global response to climate change.Currently,developed coun?tries do not reflect upon their technological efficiency on advantages in harvested wood products( HWP ) carbon pool storage.Definite burden sharing is urgent in alternative emission of global HWP carbon pool.From the per?spective of“capacity to pay principal”,with 4 scenarios based on economic development and rate of technologi?cal efficiency promoting of 20 representative HWP producing countries in the world,this study analyzed chan?ges of global HWP carbon pool and respective burden shares between 2010—2030 with GFPM.Results show that:①Technological efficiency is an important factor that promotes global HWP carbon pool,and if developed countries promote their technological efficiency at a given faster rate compared with average rate of sample countries,the global HWP carbon pool will get an increment of 2.9×103 TgC.②The capacity of alternative e?mission of HWP carbon pool in developed countries are relatively stronger,and as a result,developed countries should undertake 76%-97% share of the responsibility.Developing countries'burden share is 11% to 31% of those of developed countries respectively.③United States,Sweden,Finland and Germany are major countries that should undertake the alternative emission responsibility of global HWP carbon pool.Meanwhile,China’ s alternative emission of HWP carbon pool is an important contribution and burden share in future response to climate change.
