机械制造与自动化
機械製造與自動化
궤계제조여자동화
JIANGSU MACHINE BUILDING & AUTOMATION
2015年
3期
187-190
,共4页
车门可靠性%比例风险模型%似然估计%牛顿迭代
車門可靠性%比例風險模型%似然估計%牛頓迭代
차문가고성%비례풍험모형%사연고계%우돈질대
metro door reliability%proportional hazard model%likelihood function%newton-raphson
车门系统作为地铁车辆的关键系统，对车辆的安全性、舒适性有着重要的影响，故引入比例风险模型对车门系统的可靠性进行评估。对车门系统的历史检修数据进行筛选得到协变量因子；应用主成分分析法对协变量进行处理得到协变量矩阵；采用极大似然估计法和牛顿迭代法求取比例风险模型参数估计值；得到车门系统的比例风险模型。通过比例风险模型计算车门系统可靠度下降为0.95时，车门寿命为170天。比例风险模型所得结果与Weibull分布模型所得结果比较，可知比例风险模型所得结果更符合现场工程师经验。
車門繫統作為地鐵車輛的關鍵繫統，對車輛的安全性、舒適性有著重要的影響，故引入比例風險模型對車門繫統的可靠性進行評估。對車門繫統的歷史檢脩數據進行篩選得到協變量因子；應用主成分分析法對協變量進行處理得到協變量矩陣；採用極大似然估計法和牛頓迭代法求取比例風險模型參數估計值；得到車門繫統的比例風險模型。通過比例風險模型計算車門繫統可靠度下降為0.95時，車門壽命為170天。比例風險模型所得結果與Weibull分佈模型所得結果比較，可知比例風險模型所得結果更符閤現場工程師經驗。
차문계통작위지철차량적관건계통，대차량적안전성、서괄성유착중요적영향，고인입비례풍험모형대차문계통적가고성진행평고。대차문계통적역사검수수거진행사선득도협변량인자；응용주성분분석법대협변량진행처리득도협변량구진；채용겁대사연고계법화우돈질대법구취비례풍험모형삼수고계치；득도차문계통적비례풍험모형。통과비례풍험모형계산차문계통가고도하강위0.95시，차문수명위170천。비례풍험모형소득결과여Weibull분포모형소득결과비교，가지비례풍험모형소득결과경부합현장공정사경험。
The reliability of Metro Door is directly related to the safety of passengers. The proportional hazard model ( PHM) is pro-posed to evaluate metro door fault criticality. the proportional hazard model is introduced to the description of the relations between reliability and covariates. relevant historical failure data of metro door system, is sifted to obtain the function of the covariates of the model. the log-likelihood function is used to estimate the parameters in the PHM and the Newton-Raphson method is applied to cal-culating the parameters from the likelihood function. the reliability model is applied to evaluating the lifetime of the metro door. when R is 0.95, the reliable lifetime t0.95 is 170. Compared with the Weibul distribution, the PHM is more adaptive and robust and the impact of many covariates is considered simultaneously.
