国际病毒学杂志
國際病毒學雜誌
국제병독학잡지
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF VIROLOGY
2015年
3期
172-179
,共8页
李飒%林红%冯录召%余宏杰
李颯%林紅%馮錄召%餘宏傑
리삽%림홍%풍록소%여굉걸
流感%超额死亡%Serfling回归模型%负二项回归模型
流感%超額死亡%Serfling迴歸模型%負二項迴歸模型
류감%초액사망%Serfling회귀모형%부이항회귀모형
Influenza%Excess mortality%Serfling regression model%Negative binomial regression model
目的 估计大连市1991-2008年流感相关超额死亡率,并比较两种模型估计结果.方法 收集大连市5个市辖区的死因监测数据、我国北方地区2003-2008年流感病原学监测数据,分别采用Serfling回归模型和负二项回归模型分年龄组估计流感相关超额死亡.结果 1991-2008年,大连市年均观察死亡率为605.2/105(538.1/105-658.6/105),其中呼吸及循环系统疾病死亡占47.2％.1991-1992至2002-2003年度,流感相关的呼吸及循环系统疾病年均超额死亡率为8.5/105 (4.2/105-12.8/105).2002-2003至2007-2008年度,Serfling回归模型估计流感相关的呼吸及循环系统疾病的年均超额死亡率为5.7/105 (2.3/105-9.0/105),负二项回归模型估计结果为5.6/105(1.7/105-27.7/105).结论 两种模型估计结果一致,表明模型的可靠性.大连市流感超额死亡平均水平较低,但≥65岁年龄组所占死亡比例仍维持在90％以上,老年人群仍然是流感防控和疫苗接种的优先人群.
目的 估計大連市1991-2008年流感相關超額死亡率,併比較兩種模型估計結果.方法 收集大連市5箇市轄區的死因鑑測數據、我國北方地區2003-2008年流感病原學鑑測數據,分彆採用Serfling迴歸模型和負二項迴歸模型分年齡組估計流感相關超額死亡.結果 1991-2008年,大連市年均觀察死亡率為605.2/105(538.1/105-658.6/105),其中呼吸及循環繫統疾病死亡佔47.2％.1991-1992至2002-2003年度,流感相關的呼吸及循環繫統疾病年均超額死亡率為8.5/105 (4.2/105-12.8/105).2002-2003至2007-2008年度,Serfling迴歸模型估計流感相關的呼吸及循環繫統疾病的年均超額死亡率為5.7/105 (2.3/105-9.0/105),負二項迴歸模型估計結果為5.6/105(1.7/105-27.7/105).結論 兩種模型估計結果一緻,錶明模型的可靠性.大連市流感超額死亡平均水平較低,但≥65歲年齡組所佔死亡比例仍維持在90％以上,老年人群仍然是流感防控和疫苗接種的優先人群.
목적 고계대련시1991-2008년류감상관초액사망솔,병비교량충모형고계결과.방법 수집대련시5개시할구적사인감측수거、아국북방지구2003-2008년류감병원학감측수거,분별채용Serfling회귀모형화부이항회귀모형분년령조고계류감상관초액사망.결과 1991-2008년,대련시년균관찰사망솔위605.2/105(538.1/105-658.6/105),기중호흡급순배계통질병사망점47.2％.1991-1992지2002-2003년도,류감상관적호흡급순배계통질병년균초액사망솔위8.5/105 (4.2/105-12.8/105).2002-2003지2007-2008년도,Serfling회귀모형고계류감상관적호흡급순배계통질병적년균초액사망솔위5.7/105 (2.3/105-9.0/105),부이항회귀모형고계결과위5.6/105(1.7/105-27.7/105).결론 량충모형고계결과일치,표명모형적가고성.대련시류감초액사망평균수평교저,단≥65세년령조소점사망비례잉유지재90％이상,노년인군잉연시류감방공화역묘접충적우선인군.
Objective To estimate excess mortality associated with influenza from 1991 to 2008 in Dalian city and to compare the results made by two different regression methods.Methods We collected mortality data of five municipal districts in Dalian city as well as the influenza surveillance data of northern China during 2003-2008 to estimate influenza-associated excess mortality of different age groups by using Serfling regression model and the negative binomial regression model,respectively.Results During 1991-2008,an average annual mortality rate was 605.2 deaths per 100 000 (538.1/105-658.6/105) while the respiratory and circulatory diseases accounted for 47.2％.From 1991-1992 through 2002-2003,an average annual influenza associated excess mortality rate due to respiratory and circulatory diseases was 8.5/105(4.2/105-12.8/105).From 2002-2003 through 2007-2008,an annual average influenza associated excess mortality rates was 5.7/105(2.3/105-9.0/105) by Serfling regression model,and 5.6/105(1.7/105-27.7/105) by negative binomial regression model.Conclusions The consistently of results from two models showed their reliability.Although an average of influenza associated excess mortality in Dalian city was low,proportion of excess deaths of 65 or higher remained above 90％,indicating that the elderly was the priority of influenza prevention and vaccination.
