铁道科学与工程学报
鐵道科學與工程學報
철도과학여공정학보
JOURNAL OF RAILWAY SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
2015年
3期
678-684
,共7页
牵引供电系统%可靠性%无偏 GM(1,1)模型%粒子群算法%威布尔分布%灰色关联分析模型
牽引供電繫統%可靠性%無偏 GM(1,1)模型%粒子群算法%威佈爾分佈%灰色關聯分析模型
견인공전계통%가고성%무편 GM(1,1)모형%입자군산법%위포이분포%회색관련분석모형
TPSS%reliability%Unbiased GM(1,1)model%PSO%weibull distribution%gray relational analysis model
基于采用无偏 GM（1，1）模型预测其相关设备中长期的故障数据，增大了建模所需的数据样本量，能解决牵引供电系统可靠性建模由于故障数据较少，导致建模的精度不高且建模失败的可能性大的问题，提出基于粒子群算法的智能拟合方法。以威布尔分布模型为基础，建立牵引供电系统各关键设备可靠性分析的数学模型。计算得到用最小割集表示的牵引变电所和接触网故障树模型，综合分析得出牵引供电系统整体的可靠性模型，并计算系统整体的可靠度和平均使用寿命，通过建立灰色关联分析模型，计算得出接触线是影响牵引供电系统整体可靠性的关键设备。
基于採用無偏 GM（1，1）模型預測其相關設備中長期的故障數據，增大瞭建模所需的數據樣本量，能解決牽引供電繫統可靠性建模由于故障數據較少，導緻建模的精度不高且建模失敗的可能性大的問題，提齣基于粒子群算法的智能擬閤方法。以威佈爾分佈模型為基礎，建立牽引供電繫統各關鍵設備可靠性分析的數學模型。計算得到用最小割集錶示的牽引變電所和接觸網故障樹模型，綜閤分析得齣牽引供電繫統整體的可靠性模型，併計算繫統整體的可靠度和平均使用壽命，通過建立灰色關聯分析模型，計算得齣接觸線是影響牽引供電繫統整體可靠性的關鍵設備。
기우채용무편 GM（1，1）모형예측기상관설비중장기적고장수거，증대료건모소수적수거양본량，능해결견인공전계통가고성건모유우고장수거교소，도치건모적정도불고차건모실패적가능성대적문제，제출기우입자군산법적지능의합방법。이위포이분포모형위기출，건립견인공전계통각관건설비가고성분석적수학모형。계산득도용최소할집표시적견인변전소화접촉망고장수모형，종합분석득출견인공전계통정체적가고성모형，병계산계통정체적가고도화평균사용수명，통과건립회색관련분석모형，계산득출접촉선시영향견인공전계통정체가고성적관건설비。
Byusing unbiased GM(1,1)model to predict the long -term failure data of its associated equipment, and increasing the sample of the required data for modeling.To solve the reliability of traction power supply sys-tem modeling with less failure data,which leads to the possibility of modeling accuracy is low and modeling of failure is high.In this paper,by using a fitting method based on particle swarm optimization(PSO),a reliability modeling method of traction power supply system based on Weibull distribution model was proposed,and the reli-ability models of all components of traction power supply system were established,it is made sure of that the fit-ting precision of fault data is bigger improved.The fault tree analysis(FTA)model of traction substation and cat-enary system were established by minimal cut sets,based on these,the reliability model of traction power supply system is finished,then reliability and the average useful time of system are calculated,Finally,the main factors affecting traction power supply system reliability was calculated by establishing the gray relational analysis model. The results indicate that the reliability of the system depends on contract line in a large extent.
