CAJ | 학술논문

基于1991—2011年甘肃省各地区玉米生产面板数据，以雨养旱作农业技术革命———全膜双垄沟播技术为视角，在对玉米产量时空尺度分析的基础上，运用灰色系统关联分析法，构建关于玉米产量及其10个影响因素的交互作用关联度模型，分2个时段对玉米生产驱动机制进行阐析。研究结果表明：2003年以来，甘肃省玉米产量出现突发性持续上升的根本原因是大面积推广全膜双垄沟播技术，反映该技术的指标———地膜玉米覆盖面积已成为影响玉米产量的首要因子，对甘肃省玉米生产空间格局变迁产生了深刻影响。
기우1991—2011년감숙성각지구옥미생산면판수거，이우양한작농업기술혁명———전막쌍롱구파기술위시각，재대옥미산량시공척도분석적기출상，운용회색계통관련분석법，구건관우옥미산량급기10개영향인소적교호작용관련도모형，분2개시단대옥미생산구동궤제진행천석。연구결과표명：2003년이래，감숙성옥미산량출현돌발성지속상승적근본원인시대면적추엄전막쌍롱구파기술，반영해기술적지표———지막옥미복개면적이성위영향옥미산량적수요인자，대감숙성옥미생산공간격국변천산생료심각영향。
Based on various areas of Gansu Province corn production panel data in nearly 20 years, this paper choose the perspective of rainfed agricultural technology revolution that whole plastic-film mulching on double ridges and planting in catchment furrows in the dry land.On the basis of the analysis of the spatial and temporal scales of corn production,the gray system model of corn production was established depend on the data about corn production and its related historical data of Gansu Province.Besides,it expounding on corn production drive mechanism by di-viding into 2 periods.The results showed that the large area of marketing the technology in Gansu Province is the root cause of the rising corn yield dramatically since 2003 , plastic-film corn area covered as index reflecting the technology has become the primary factor which influence the production of corn.Meanwhile, it has had a profound impact on the change of spatial pattern of corn production in Gansu Province.