CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于淮河流域2004-2013年国控重点监测断面周数据,运用OLS法和最邻近匹配方法( NNM, Nearest Neighbor Matching)考察地级市行政边界对河流污染的影响。研究表明,淮河流域行政边界下游比上游污染更为严重,“行政边界效应”分别达到-13．764%( DO,溶解氧)、46．453%( COD,化学需氧量)和145．736%( NH3-N,氨氮)。使用双重差分法检验了“十一五”和“十二五”环境政策对淮河流域跨界污染问题的影响,发现纳入考核范围的COD的“行政边界效应”在“十一五”后期才有所改善,“十二五”政策则显著缓解了约束性指标COD和NH3-N的“行政边界效应”。研究对于打破淮河流域各地级市“逐底竞争”的考核机制、制定更为合理的考核办法、鼓励地级市间环境合作治理都有重要的现实价值。
본문기우회하류역2004-2013년국공중점감측단면주수거,운용OLS법화최린근필배방법( NNM, Nearest Neighbor Matching)고찰지급시행정변계대하류오염적영향。연구표명,회하류역행정변계하유비상유오염경위엄중,“행정변계효응”분별체도-13．764%( DO,용해양)、46．453%( COD,화학수양량)화145．736%( NH3-N,안담)。사용쌍중차분법검험료“십일오”화“십이오”배경정책대회하류역과계오염문제적영향,발현납입고핵범위적COD적“행정변계효응”재“십일오”후기재유소개선,“십이오”정책칙현저완해료약속성지표COD화NH3-N적“행정변계효응”。연구대우타파회하류역각지급시“축저경쟁”적고핵궤제、제정경위합리적고핵판법、고려지급시간배경합작치리도유중요적현실개치。
Based on the state key monitoring sections’ weekly data of Huaihe River Basin from 2004 to 2013,we apply OLS regression and nearest neighbor matching method, and test the effect of municipal administrative boundary on rivers’ pollution. It turns out that the pollution level at the boundary downstream monitoring sites is higher than that at the boundary upstream monitoring sites,and the“administrative boundary effect” is-13. 764%( DO) ,46. 453%( COD) , 145. 736%(NH3-N). We research the influence of“11th Five-Year Plan” and“12th Five-Year Plan” on Huaihe River Basin transboundary pollution with the method of Difference in Difference ( DID ) , and find that “boundary effect” of COD which is brought into “11th Five-Year Plan” eases later. After bringing NH3-N into “12th Five-Year Plan”,“boundary effect” of COD and NH3-N significantly reduce. The research is of great practical significance to break the assessment mechanism of local “race to bottom”,draft a more reasonable assessment method,and encourage cooperative governance cross river environment problems etc.