CAJ | 학술논문

近年来，“计划生育”持续引发各相关社会阶层针锋相对的争议。科学回答“如果不实行‘计划生育’，中国未来的人口增长趋势究竟会怎样？”这一根本问题将成为解答争议的关键要件。本文基于独立于部门利益之外的非官方CHNS调查数据，首次利用倾向评分匹配( PSM)的方法定量分析在不实行“计划生育”的条件下，城镇化对育龄妇女生育规划的影响。结果表明：城镇化会使无子女育龄妇女和有子女育龄妇女当期准备要孩子的概率分别下降5．43%和3．45%；使相同条件的无子女育龄妇女和有子女育龄妇女的理想子女数分别减少0．32和0．364个。这意味着，对放开“计划生育”之后可能会出现报复性人口膨胀的风险可不必过于担忧，因为中国正在经历的城镇化将会从根本上改变家庭生育规划，并最终导致自然生育率下降。
근년래，“계화생육”지속인발각상관사회계층침봉상대적쟁의。과학회답“여과불실행‘계화생육’，중국미래적인구증장추세구경회즘양？”저일근본문제장성위해답쟁의적관건요건。본문기우독립우부문이익지외적비관방CHNS조사수거，수차이용경향평분필배( PSM)적방법정량분석재불실행“계화생육”적조건하，성진화대육령부녀생육규화적영향。결과표명：성진화회사무자녀육령부녀화유자녀육령부녀당기준비요해자적개솔분별하강5．43%화3．45%；사상동조건적무자녀육령부녀화유자녀육령부녀적이상자녀수분별감소0．32화0．364개。저의미착，대방개“계화생육”지후가능회출현보복성인구팽창적풍험가불필과우담우，인위중국정재경력적성진화장회종근본상개변가정생육규화，병최종도치자연생육솔하강。
In recent years,“Family Planning” continuously caused controversy in all relevant sectors. The key element to resolve the dispute is to answer the fundamental question“if there is no‘family planning’ ,what will happen for China’ s population growth trend in the future?” Based on the unofficial CHNS survey data which is independent of sectoral interests,this paper studied the impact of urbanization on women childbearing planning under the assumption of no“family planning” with the method of propensity score matching (PSM). The results showed that:Urbanization make the probabilities of childbearing planning for childless women and the women with children fell 5. 43% and 3. 45%, respectively,as well as make the ideal number of children for childless women and the women with children decrease by 0. 32 and 0. 364. This means that it is not necessary to worry about the risk of population retaliatory swell after “family planning” liberalization,for that the urbanization China is experiencing will radically change family fertility planning,and eventually lead to a natural fertility decline.