中国防汛抗旱
中國防汛抗旱
중국방신항한
CHINESE CULTURE PICTORIAL
2015年
3期
6-9
,共4页
城市洪涝%连锁性%突变性%风险管理%应急管理
城市洪澇%連鎖性%突變性%風險管理%應急管理
성시홍로%련쇄성%돌변성%풍험관리%응급관리
urban flood risk%linkage and mutation of flood loss%flood risk management%emergency management
为了寻求新常态下城市防洪减灾的有效对策，通过实地调研、资料分析与国内外的比较研究，探讨了我国城市洪涝损失激增的成因，分析了风险的演变倾向与重要特征。结果表明，2006年以来，我国每年受淹城市都在百座以上，年洪涝直接经济总损失与受淹城市数量呈明显正相关，洪涝损失构成已发生显著变化；1998年我国人口城镇化率突破30%以来，城镇化进程规模空前，目前虽已过了最为迅猛的状态，但仍处于中高速发展阶段，城镇化加剧洪涝风险的压力仍将持续增大；现代城市洪涝损失的连锁性与突变性日趋凸显，亟待基于风险评估建立更为完善的应急响应机制；随着城市人口增长、规模扩张，安全保障要求显著提高，但防洪治涝基础设施建设欠账太多，达标城市数不增反降。为此必须因地制宜，基于风险评估从流域、城市、社区等不同尺度上选择与发展阶段相适宜的减灾策略。
為瞭尋求新常態下城市防洪減災的有效對策，通過實地調研、資料分析與國內外的比較研究，探討瞭我國城市洪澇損失激增的成因，分析瞭風險的縯變傾嚮與重要特徵。結果錶明，2006年以來，我國每年受淹城市都在百座以上，年洪澇直接經濟總損失與受淹城市數量呈明顯正相關，洪澇損失構成已髮生顯著變化；1998年我國人口城鎮化率突破30%以來，城鎮化進程規模空前，目前雖已過瞭最為迅猛的狀態，但仍處于中高速髮展階段，城鎮化加劇洪澇風險的壓力仍將持續增大；現代城市洪澇損失的連鎖性與突變性日趨凸顯，亟待基于風險評估建立更為完善的應急響應機製；隨著城市人口增長、規模擴張，安全保障要求顯著提高，但防洪治澇基礎設施建設欠賬太多，達標城市數不增反降。為此必鬚因地製宜，基于風險評估從流域、城市、社區等不同呎度上選擇與髮展階段相適宜的減災策略。
위료심구신상태하성시방홍감재적유효대책，통과실지조연、자료분석여국내외적비교연구，탐토료아국성시홍로손실격증적성인，분석료풍험적연변경향여중요특정。결과표명，2006년이래，아국매년수엄성시도재백좌이상，년홍로직접경제총손실여수엄성시수량정명현정상관，홍로손실구성이발생현저변화；1998년아국인구성진화솔돌파30%이래，성진화진정규모공전，목전수이과료최위신맹적상태，단잉처우중고속발전계단，성진화가극홍로풍험적압력잉장지속증대；현대성시홍로손실적련쇄성여돌변성일추철현，극대기우풍험평고건립경위완선적응급향응궤제；수착성시인구증장、규모확장，안전보장요구현저제고，단방홍치로기출설시건설흠장태다，체표성시수불증반강。위차필수인지제의，기우풍험평고종류역、성시、사구등불동척도상선택여발전계단상괄의적감재책략。
In order to seek effective countermeasures for urban flood control and disaster reduction under the New Normal, field research, data analysis, and comparative between domestic and external were carried out. The causes of rapid increasing flood loss in urban cities were discussed, and the evolution trend and important features of urban flood risk were analyzed. Study results show that more than 100 cities have flooded each year since 2006 in China. The annual total direct economic loss and the number of flood inundated cities are significantly positive correlation. Urbanization rate have exceeded 30% since 1998, and urbanization development is stil in rapid growth stage in China. As the consequence, the pressure of flood risk caused by urbanization wil continue to increase. A more comprehensive emergency response mechanism needs to establish based on risk assessment. Along with the urban population growth and expansion of the cities without enough infrastructures for drainage, the countermeasures for flood prevention must be appropriated to local.
