CAJ | 학술논문

针对我国储粮害虫预测所面临的技术需求，分析了储粮害虫预测预报技术研究现状及其存在的问题，以研究解决储粮害虫前期预测问题为目标，围绕储粮害虫种群数量、生长规律、发生时间序列的混沌特性等进行探讨并做出展望，探索运用混沌理论中的相空间重构、庞卡莱截面、返回映像和自相关函数等方法对害虫发生非平稳时间序列进行分析和预测，将混沌理论运用于粮虫的预测预报领域，寻求储粮害虫预测技术的创新点与突破点，为储粮害虫预测预报技术提供支撑，对完善储粮害虫预测技术和保障粮食安全具有指导意义。
침대아국저량해충예측소면림적기술수구，분석료저량해충예측예보기술연구현상급기존재적문제，이연구해결저량해충전기예측문제위목표，위요저량해충충군수량、생장규률、발생시간서렬적혼돈특성등진행탐토병주출전망，탐색운용혼돈이론중적상공간중구、방잡래절면、반회영상화자상관함수등방법대해충발생비평은시간서렬진행분석화예측，장혼돈이론운용우량충적예측예보영역，심구저량해충예측기술적창신점여돌파점，위저량해충예측예보기술제공지탱，대완선저량해충예측기술화보장양식안전구유지도의의。
According to the technical demand of stored grain pests forecast in China,research status and open questions about stored grain pests forecast was analyzed.In order to solve the problem,the increas-ing population of insects,growth rhythm,and chaotic characteristics of time sequence were discussed. The phase space reconstruction,Poincare section,and the return map and auto correlation function of chaos theory are applied tentatively to analysis and predict time series of pests in non -stationary stage. Chaotic theory is applied to the field of prediction for stored grain insects to seek the innovation and break through point of stored grain pest’s prediction technique,which provided technology support for stored grain pests prediction system and had guiding significance for the improvement of stored grain pest’s fore-casting technology and food security.