CAJ | 학술논문

以东江博罗站1953—2013年长系列年最大洪峰流量及其峰现时间为基础，采用Von Mises 函数拟合年最大洪水洪峰出现时间的分布特征，皮尔逊III型函数拟合年最大洪水洪峰流量的分布特征，采用Frank Copula 函数构建了洪峰流量和峰现时间两变量的联合分布，分析了东江博罗站洪峰出现时间分布特性，年最大洪水事件联合重现期和条件重现期。结果表明：以Von Mises，皮尔逊III型及Frank Copula函数构建的联合分布函数均能较好拟合东江博罗站年最大洪水分布特征，可有效挖掘流域洪水信息，为流域防洪规划和风险管理提供参考。
이동강박라참1953—2013년장계렬년최대홍봉류량급기봉현시간위기출，채용Von Mises 함수의합년최대홍수홍봉출현시간적분포특정，피이손III형함수의합년최대홍수홍봉류량적분포특정，채용Frank Copula 함수구건료홍봉류량화봉현시간량변량적연합분포，분석료동강박라참홍봉출현시간분포특성，년최대홍수사건연합중현기화조건중현기。결과표명：이Von Mises，피이손III형급Frank Copula함수구건적연합분포함수균능교호의합동강박라참년최대홍수분포특정，가유효알굴류역홍수신식，위류역방홍규화화풍험관리제공삼고。
Von Mises and Pearson Type III distribution are used to describe the occurrence dates and magnitudes of annual maximum flood respectively .A bivariate joint distribution with Von Mises and Pearson Type III distribution margins is developed based on the Frank Copula from the data of annual maximum flood occurrence dates and magnitudes frequency at Boluo hydrologic station from 1953 to 2013.Copula Function are used to describe the annual maximum flood Characteristics , conditional probability , joint probability and bivariate return period .A case study suggests that the Von Mises distribution , Pearson Type III distribution and the bivariate joint distribution base on Frank Copula can fit both occurrence dates and magnitudes of annual maximum flood series well.More information of flood can be mined , and it is provided as a reference for flood control planning and risk management in Dongjiang river basin .