CAJ | 학술논문

目的：：筛选重症手足口病(HFMD)患者发生心肺衰竭(CPF)的危险因素,构建重症 HFMD CPF 发病预测模型。方法：选择2008年1月至2012年12月住院重症 HFMD 患者,收集其临床资料,采用 logistic 回归方法分析 CPF 发生的危险因素,构建预测模型,分析该模型的预测效果。结果：Logistic 回归分析结果显示,年龄≤24个月(OR =2.619,95% CI =1.609~4.262)、发热持续时间>3 d(OR =4.167,95% CI =2.591~6.703)、血糖>8.3 mmol/ L(OR =8.235,95% CI =4.356~15.571)、白细胞计数增多(OR =2.661,95% CI =1.695~4.178)为重症HFMD 发生 CPF 的危险因素。以此模型对重症 HFMD CPF 进行发病预测,诊断灵敏度为67.4%(31/46),特异度为85.7%(78/91),准确度为79.5%(109/137)。结论：重症 HFMD CPF 预测模型可定量评估重症 HFMD CPF 发生的风险。
목적：：사선중증수족구병(HFMD)환자발생심폐쇠갈(CPF)적위험인소,구건중증 HFMD CPF 발병예측모형。방법：선택2008년1월지2012년12월주원중증 HFMD 환자,수집기림상자료,채용 logistic 회귀방법분석 CPF 발생적위험인소,구건예측모형,분석해모형적예측효과。결과：Logistic 회귀분석결과현시,년령≤24개월(OR =2.619,95% CI =1.609~4.262)、발열지속시간>3 d(OR =4.167,95% CI =2.591~6.703)、혈당>8.3 mmol/ L(OR =8.235,95% CI =4.356~15.571)、백세포계수증다(OR =2.661,95% CI =1.695~4.178)위중증HFMD 발생 CPF 적위험인소。이차모형대중증 HFMD CPF 진행발병예측,진단령민도위67.4%(31/46),특이도위85.7%(78/91),준학도위79.5%(109/137)。결론：중증 HFMD CPF 예측모형가정량평고중증 HFMD CPF 발생적풍험。
Aim: To identify the risk factors associated with cardiopulmonary failure( CPF) in infants with severe hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD), and develop a reliable prediction system for it. Methods: Logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between risk factors and CPF. The predictive effect of the model was evaluated. Results: In the multivariable analysis, 4 variables [age≤24 months(OR = 2. 619, 95% CI = 1. 609 - 4. 262), days of fever > 3 d(OR =4. 167, 95% CI = 2. 591 - 6. 703, hyperglycaemia( OR = 8. 235, 95% CI = 4. 356 - 15. 571) and leucocytosis( OR =2. 661, 95% CI = 1. 695 - 4. 178)] in the risk evaluation model remained independent predictors of CPF. When the pre-diction was performed based on the existing data using the present model, the sensitivity, specificity and consistency of the model were 67. 4% (31 / 46), 85. 7% (78 / 91) and 79. 5% (109 / 137), respectively. Conclusion: The forecasting model was a quantitative and effective tool for predicting CPF in infants with severe HFMD.