CAJ | 학술논문

大规模风电场的接入使风电相关性更加复杂，合理描述多风电场出力的随机性和相关性特性，对准确分析风电对电力系统运行的影响具有重要意义。现有的 Copula 等方法能较准确描述二元相关性，但对于更高维模型的相关性描述则不够准确。基于此，提出了基于 C 藤 Pair Copula 的风电功率高维相关性模型，以及相应的采样方法。Pair Copula 能够描述风电功率两两之间不同的相关性结构，从而能较好描述复杂的多维相关性，且建模步骤简单，使用灵活，适用范围广。对澳大利亚多个风电场出力样本进行分析和建模，验证了所提方法的优越性。最后通过 IEEE 118节点系统的概率潮流算例，说明了合理刻画风电功率相关性可以更准确地分析含风电接入的电力系统运行特性。
대규모풍전장적접입사풍전상관성경가복잡，합리묘술다풍전장출력적수궤성화상관성특성，대준학분석풍전대전력계통운행적영향구유중요의의。현유적 Copula 등방법능교준학묘술이원상관성，단대우경고유모형적상관성묘술칙불구준학。기우차，제출료기우 C 등 Pair Copula 적풍전공솔고유상관성모형，이급상응적채양방법。Pair Copula 능구묘술풍전공솔량량지간불동적상관성결구，종이능교호묘술복잡적다유상관성，차건모보취간단，사용령활，괄용범위엄。대오대리아다개풍전장출력양본진행분석화건모，험증료소제방법적우월성。최후통과 IEEE 118절점계통적개솔조류산례，설명료합리각화풍전공솔상관성가이경준학지분석함풍전접입적전력계통운행특성。
Large-scale integration of wind farms leads to the complex dependence among wind power outputs.It is important to model the stochastic and dependent wind generation accurately to analyze the impact of wind generation on power system operation.Current methods,such as the Copula theory,are accurate enough for describing two dependent random variables. However,they are inadequate for modeling more random variables as accurately.Thus,a high-dimensional probabilistic model is proposed for dependent wind power outputs based on the canonical-vine Pair Copula theory.The corresponding sampling method is also introduced.Pair Copula can describe different patterns of dependence between pairs of wind power outputs. Hence high-dimensional wind power outputs with complex dependence can be modeled accurately.Moreover,The Pair Copula model can be easily constructed and has wide applicability as well as flexibility.The modeling and analysis of wind generation in a number of wind farms in Australia are implemented to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model. Finally, the probabilistic load flow of an IEEE 1 18-bus system is solved.Simulation results show that the operation characteristics of power systems incorporating wind farms can be analyzed more accurately if dependent wind power outputs are rationally described.