CAJ | 학술논문

风的时变和间歇性制约风电与负荷的实时能量平衡，准确的功率预测有助于风能成为可调度能源。针对风电不确定性问题，提出了基于单机最优功率曲线拟合的多计算流体力学(CFD)场景风电功率预测方法。首先，离散求解大气物理运动方程，并建立能反映风电场流体分布的 CFD加速比矩阵。其次，针对风轮旋转尾流效应，提出了参考风轮推力系数的自由与带有激盘模型流场的变权重 CFD 组合预测。最后，提出了一种利用经过尾流修正风电机组自身风速计数据的迭代风电功率曲线拟合方法，以贡献率为判断指标，迭代剔除坏点并拟合单机最优功率曲线。实际算例结果证明所提方法可以有效提高功率曲线拟合和预测精确度。
풍적시변화간헐성제약풍전여부하적실시능량평형，준학적공솔예측유조우풍능성위가조도능원。침대풍전불학정성문제，제출료기우단궤최우공솔곡선의합적다계산류체역학(CFD)장경풍전공솔예측방법。수선，리산구해대기물리운동방정，병건립능반영풍전장류체분포적 CFD가속비구진。기차，침대풍륜선전미류효응，제출료삼고풍륜추력계수적자유여대유격반모형류장적변권중 CFD 조합예측。최후，제출료일충이용경과미류수정풍전궤조자신풍속계수거적질대풍전공솔곡선의합방법，이공헌솔위판단지표，질대척제배점병의합단궤최우공솔곡선。실제산례결과증명소제방법가이유효제고공솔곡선의합화예측정학도。
Due to the wind power time-varying and intermittent characteristics,it is difficult to achieve real time energy balance in a power system.Hence,accurate and stable power forecast will make wind energy a schedulable energy.To deal with wind power uncertainties,a multi-scenario power forecasting method based on the optimal fitting wind power curve for single turbine is proposed.Firstly,atmospheric movement model is discretized using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) speedup matrix, which can reflect wind flow distribution accurately.Secondly,a new variable-weight CFD wind forecast combination method for each wind turbine is put forward considering rotor thrust coefficient of free flow field and wakes of actuator disc.Finally,a new site-specific optimal power curve fitting method is developed based on historical data of wind speed and power measured by wind turbine”s anemometers.The contribution rate is the basis of eliminating illegal points by use of iterative algorithm.The engineering applications show that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of wind power curve fitting and forecasting.