CAJ | 학술논문

本文选取2003－2009年我国27个制造业行业数据样本，用进口国贸易成本和市场规模作为进口国市场潜力的代理指标，研究金融发展对我国制造业贸易伙伴选择行为的影响。结果显示：当以进口国贸易成本衡量其市场潜力时，金融发展通过缓解外部融资约束，助力于高外部融资依赖性、低资产有形性行业与市场潜力更小的国家建立贸易伙伴关系；当以进口国市场规模衡量其市场潜力时，金融发展对促进制造业行业与市场潜力更小的国家建立贸易伙伴关系起正向作用，其作用表现为随着行业资产有形性的提高而加强；通过反事实模拟分析发现，总体上金融发展可以扩大我国可贸易伙伴的范围，但相对于金融市场规模而言，金融市场效率对贸易伙伴选择的影响更大。
본문선취2003－2009년아국27개제조업행업수거양본，용진구국무역성본화시장규모작위진구국시장잠력적대리지표，연구금융발전대아국제조업무역화반선택행위적영향。결과현시：당이진구국무역성본형량기시장잠력시，금융발전통과완해외부융자약속，조력우고외부융자의뢰성、저자산유형성행업여시장잠력경소적국가건립무역화반관계；당이진구국시장규모형량기시장잠력시，금융발전대촉진제조업행업여시장잠력경소적국가건립무역화반관계기정향작용，기작용표현위수착행업자산유형성적제고이가강；통과반사실모의분석발현，총체상금융발전가이확대아국가무역화반적범위，단상대우금융시장규모이언，금융시장효솔대무역화반선택적영향경대。
This paper selects China′s data of 27 manufacturing industries from 2003 to 2009, and adopts importing coun-tries′trade costs and market scales as the proxy indicators of importing courtiers′market potential to discuss financial de-velopment′s effect on China′s choice behavior of trade partners in manufacturing industry.The results are as follows:when using importing countries′trade costs to measure their market potentials, financial development, through easing ex-ternal financing constraint, contributes to the establishment of trading partnership with countries with less market poten-tials by high external financing dependence and low asset tangibility; when using importing countries market scales to measure their potentials, financial development helps to facilitate manufacturing industry to establish trade partnership with countries with less market potentials, and with the increase of asset tangibility the effect is more obvious;the coun-terfactual simulation analysis shows that financial development can expand the scope of China′s trading partners, but compared with the financial scale, the efficiency of financial intermediation has more influence on the trade partner selec-tion.