商业研究
商業研究
상업연구
COMMERCIAL RESEARCH
2015年
8期
31-39
,共9页
存货调整%函数性数据%相平面图%广义可加模型
存貨調整%函數性數據%相平麵圖%廣義可加模型
존화조정%함수성수거%상평면도%엄의가가모형
inventory adjustment%functional data%Phase Plane%Generalized Additive Model
本文在对12类行业厂商存货占比和营业收入环比增速数据函数化的基础上，绘制了各行业存货占比函数性序列的相平面图，并采取广义可加模型这一非参数估计方法对各行业存货占比与营业收入环比增速的非线性关系进行研究，结果表明：除了部分行业存货占比具有较明显的趋势变化特征外，大部分行业存货占比都具有较明显的周期波动特征；各行业存货占比与营业收入环比增速的关系相当复杂，有的总体呈现顺周期，有的总体呈现逆周期，但它们的非线性特征都非常突出。
本文在對12類行業廠商存貨佔比和營業收入環比增速數據函數化的基礎上，繪製瞭各行業存貨佔比函數性序列的相平麵圖，併採取廣義可加模型這一非參數估計方法對各行業存貨佔比與營業收入環比增速的非線性關繫進行研究，結果錶明：除瞭部分行業存貨佔比具有較明顯的趨勢變化特徵外，大部分行業存貨佔比都具有較明顯的週期波動特徵；各行業存貨佔比與營業收入環比增速的關繫相噹複雜，有的總體呈現順週期，有的總體呈現逆週期，但它們的非線性特徵都非常突齣。
본문재대12류행업엄상존화점비화영업수입배비증속수거함수화적기출상，회제료각행업존화점비함수성서렬적상평면도，병채취엄의가가모형저일비삼수고계방법대각행업존화점비여영업수입배비증속적비선성관계진행연구，결과표명：제료부분행업존화점비구유교명현적추세변화특정외，대부분행업존화점비도구유교명현적주기파동특정；각행업존화점비여영업수입배비증속적관계상당복잡，유적총체정현순주기，유적총체정현역주기，단타문적비선성특정도비상돌출。
Based on the functional data of the ratios of industry inventory to revenue and the qoq growth rates of revenue which come from 12 categories of industries, the phase planes of the functionalized ratios of industry inventory to revenue are drawn up to compare their dynamic evolution characteristics and evolution path, and then non-parameter estimation method of generalized additive model is taken to explore the different non-linear relationships between the ratios of in-dustry inventory to revenue and the qoq growth rates of revenue.The following conclusions are obtained:the ratios of in-dustry inventory to revenue have a trend feature for some industries, but have obvious characteristics of cyclical fluctua-tions for most industries;the relationships between industry inventory and revenue seem quite complex, some showing pro-cyclical, some showing counter-cyclical, however, non-linear characteristics are more prominent than linear char-acteristics for all industries.
