金融发展研究
金融髮展研究
금융발전연구
JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH
2015年
7期
23-29
,共7页
有限理性预期%估测偏见%短视%参照点依赖
有限理性預期%估測偏見%短視%參照點依賴
유한이성예기%고측편견%단시%삼조점의뢰
limited rational expectation%estimation bias%short-sighted%reference point dependence
本文利用行为经济学的估测偏见理论,结合我国货币政策实际效果对公众当前有限理性预期对货币政策有效性的影响进行分析解释,认为我国公众通货膨胀预期具有明显的有限理性特征,导致偏离政策目标。因而货币政策的制定和发布应尽量消除不确定性,加强与公众的沟通,树立公众信心,提高货币政策透明度。
本文利用行為經濟學的估測偏見理論,結閤我國貨幣政策實際效果對公衆噹前有限理性預期對貨幣政策有效性的影響進行分析解釋,認為我國公衆通貨膨脹預期具有明顯的有限理性特徵,導緻偏離政策目標。因而貨幣政策的製定和髮佈應儘量消除不確定性,加彊與公衆的溝通,樹立公衆信心,提高貨幣政策透明度。
본문이용행위경제학적고측편견이론,결합아국화폐정책실제효과대공음당전유한이성예기대화폐정책유효성적영향진행분석해석,인위아국공음통화팽창예기구유명현적유한이성특정,도치편리정책목표。인이화폐정책적제정화발포응진량소제불학정성,가강여공음적구통,수립공음신심,제고화폐정책투명도。
Using the behavioral economics estimation bias theory and combining the actual effect of the monetary policy, this paper analyzes and explains the impaction of public limited rational expectations on the effectiveness of mon-etary policy, and believes that public inflation expectations have irrational characteristics which lead to policy objectives deviation. So the formulation of monetary policy should try to eliminate uncertainty, strengthen communication with the public, establish public confidence and improve the transparency of monetary policy. And finally this paper puts forward some policy recommendations.